BITCOIN TO 100K?THE FUTURE OF CRYPTOS|PREMIUM[Long-Term]ANALYSIS
BTC|USD: Series Cryptocurrencies[Part 1]- Aug 21st 2019(8-9 minute read)
EDIT: The Fibonacci spirals always get distorted when posting. Check the last update for the correct Fibonacci Spirals setup.
Truth being said, despite that I initially started with trading solely in bitcoin, I have not been actively analysing/trading bitcoin for the past couple of months. But, it's time for some really deep, thorough and accurate long-term analysis. Why now? The fact is that an increasing number of corporate portfolios are starting to including cryptos in their composition. Mostly done because of diversification benefits. Before I get into the monster of a chart above, I will start by analysing the Weekly Bitcoin chart.
The wave 1 buildup was really illogical to me and apparently to many other traders based on EW. The expectations were that it would top at around 10k, but once it broke 10k, it snowballed all the way up to 14k. However, right now things aren't looking so bullish. In the very short-term it seems that it is starting to build up for a Wave 2. As it can be seen from the chart, the strong support currently is the 21 weekly EMA(light blue line). This trendline is also one of the best indicators for momentum. 2 Consecutive closes below the EMA would imply a momentum shift, followed by perhaps a formation of Wave 2. Sometimes a correction, can be quite healthy for the long term buildup. The EW labelling in the chart, for now it is quite far fetched. Now, before I get into the monthly chart, have to say that the Weekly pitchfork is much more realistic.
The best way to analyse macro time frames is by contrasting some of the most significant fundamental factors. Both the bullish and the bearish scenarios are labelled. As it is labelled on the chart, one of the reasons for the current spike can be said to be the May 2020 Bitcoin Block Reward Halving. Contrary to the typical FIAT concept- Bitcoin is based on a deflationary/scarcity concept. This is the primary bullish factor in favour of bitcoin.
https://ibb.co/KLrtDcJ
There are 2 Fibonacci Spirals. The Purple one is smaller for obvious reasons. It is much easy to climb from 1.2k to 20k than it is from to climb from 20k to 100k+. Hence, the Purple Spiral is based on the Fib Golden ratio(0.618) used in the calculation. What also fueled run of the Green spiral is the good economy enabled by the US recent Tax Reform. This may not be the case in the buildup for the Purple Spiral(See link #2-The Vix). In addition to the Spirals, the essence of the chart is the long term Macro Pitchfork. If the Pitchfork is carefully analysed, it fits practically every single candle/pattern within its bands. Even the current buildup to Wave 1(14k) on the weekly, stopped at the Median(Red line). I haven't seen a similar Pitchfork on tview yet. I could also say the same thing about the Spirals. The orange cycle lines on the bottom are just a cherry on top of the wholeness of the chart.
To conclude this analysis, Am I Bullish on Bitcoin? - Not yet. From the chart, one can say that everyone should be invested in Bitcoin since the targets for the next 2-3 years are in the range of 100k-150k. What am I looking for? A cross over the current closing monthly resistance of around 14k or 2 candles above the grey line. The Monthly Ichimoku cloud hasn't turned bullish yet which is another worthy factor of mentioning. Currently I'd say that bitcoin is in a neutral market. What I am really fearful about, is a regulatory action from the governments. When they stepped in and intervened with quasi Facebook's Libra idea, I interpreted this as a warning. Next time Bitcoin breaks above 20k, it will attract quite a lot of attention. The regulatory status-quo is the best environment for Bitcoin to be in. This will hurt bitcoin, but it will absolutely annihilate the altcoin market(my old NEO Chart, See link#1). Even if such action occurs, I am quite optimistic that there are other coins that fit in the niche of Monero, which will continue to prosper.
(Share your charts and give me some feedback people, don't be shy! If you disagree, that's even better; it'll just make up for a great discussion in the comments)
|Step_Ahead_oftheMarket|
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated!
----->I will attempt on doing more long term TA's on altcoins when I have time. Send me a chart of your altcoin with a short news update.
1. NEOBTC |NEOUSDT: The Altcoin Bearish Markets' story since the start of 2018 tradingview.com/chart/NEOBTC/dDRuHtpw-NEO-What-s-it-cooking-Potential-death-s-cross-50-200day-avg/
2. PART 1-VIX: Volatility Index tradingview.com/chart/VIX/JqftOGwh-RECESSION-IMPENDING-MEDIUM-TERM-VOLATILITY-VIX-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS/
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels. Wish that tview had a copyright/IP protection option, but it is what it is.
EDIT: The Fibonacci spirals always get distorted when posting. Check the last update for the correct Fibonacci Spirals setup.
Truth being said, despite that I initially started with trading solely in bitcoin, I have not been actively analysing/trading bitcoin for the past couple of months. But, it's time for some really deep, thorough and accurate long-term analysis. Why now? The fact is that an increasing number of corporate portfolios are starting to including cryptos in their composition. Mostly done because of diversification benefits. Before I get into the monster of a chart above, I will start by analysing the Weekly Bitcoin chart.
The best way to analyse macro time frames is by contrasting some of the most significant fundamental factors. Both the bullish and the bearish scenarios are labelled. As it is labelled on the chart, one of the reasons for the current spike can be said to be the May 2020 Bitcoin Block Reward Halving. Contrary to the typical FIAT concept- Bitcoin is based on a deflationary/scarcity concept. This is the primary bullish factor in favour of bitcoin.
https://ibb.co/KLrtDcJ
There are 2 Fibonacci Spirals. The Purple one is smaller for obvious reasons. It is much easy to climb from 1.2k to 20k than it is from to climb from 20k to 100k+. Hence, the Purple Spiral is based on the Fib Golden ratio(0.618) used in the calculation. What also fueled run of the Green spiral is the good economy enabled by the US recent Tax Reform. This may not be the case in the buildup for the Purple Spiral(See link #2-The Vix). In addition to the Spirals, the essence of the chart is the long term Macro Pitchfork. If the Pitchfork is carefully analysed, it fits practically every single candle/pattern within its bands. Even the current buildup to Wave 1(14k) on the weekly, stopped at the Median(Red line). I haven't seen a similar Pitchfork on tview yet. I could also say the same thing about the Spirals. The orange cycle lines on the bottom are just a cherry on top of the wholeness of the chart.
To conclude this analysis, Am I Bullish on Bitcoin? - Not yet. From the chart, one can say that everyone should be invested in Bitcoin since the targets for the next 2-3 years are in the range of 100k-150k. What am I looking for? A cross over the current closing monthly resistance of around 14k or 2 candles above the grey line. The Monthly Ichimoku cloud hasn't turned bullish yet which is another worthy factor of mentioning. Currently I'd say that bitcoin is in a neutral market. What I am really fearful about, is a regulatory action from the governments. When they stepped in and intervened with quasi Facebook's Libra idea, I interpreted this as a warning. Next time Bitcoin breaks above 20k, it will attract quite a lot of attention. The regulatory status-quo is the best environment for Bitcoin to be in. This will hurt bitcoin, but it will absolutely annihilate the altcoin market(my old NEO Chart, See link#1). Even if such action occurs, I am quite optimistic that there are other coins that fit in the niche of Monero, which will continue to prosper.
(Share your charts and give me some feedback people, don't be shy! If you disagree, that's even better; it'll just make up for a great discussion in the comments)
|Step_Ahead_oftheMarket|
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated!
----->I will attempt on doing more long term TA's on altcoins when I have time. Send me a chart of your altcoin with a short news update.
1. NEOBTC |NEOUSDT: The Altcoin Bearish Markets' story since the start of 2018 tradingview.com/chart/NEOBTC/dDRuHtpw-NEO-What-s-it-cooking-Potential-death-s-cross-50-200day-avg/
2. PART 1-VIX: Volatility Index tradingview.com/chart/VIX/JqftOGwh-RECESSION-IMPENDING-MEDIUM-TERM-VOLATILITY-VIX-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS/
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels. Wish that tview had a copyright/IP protection option, but it is what it is.
Comment:
Same can be said for the Monthly RSI. This is just some structural labelling.
Same can be said for the Monthly RSI. This is just some structural labelling.
Comment:
And again, tradingview distorting my Fibonacci spiral. Here's the correct chart.
I'd appreciate if I am giving credit if someone uses my idea as base for theirs. After all, I could've of not even posted such a through and extensive analysis. But I do it as it's a very good way of keeping track of my market research notes and obviously for some recognition too.
-
|Step_Ahead_ofthe_Market|
And again, tradingview distorting my Fibonacci spiral. Here's the correct chart.
I'd appreciate if I am giving credit if someone uses my idea as base for theirs. After all, I could've of not even posted such a through and extensive analysis. But I do it as it's a very good way of keeping track of my market research notes and obviously for some recognition too.
-
|Step_Ahead_ofthe_Market|
Comment:
Given credit*, if this idea is used as a reference. God damn these analysis can be very exhausting. Excuse meee:), if you find any other typos...
Comment:
Update on bitcoin. Confirming the 7400~ support. Expecting to move within these contrasting pitchforks, until one is invalidated.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
Update on bitcoin. Confirming the 7400~ support. Expecting to move within these contrasting pitchforks, until one is invalidated.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
Comment:
Bitcoin doesn't seem that it will close above the drawn band line for November. Currently breaking few major supporting MA's. Obviously, it's not looking good.
Expecting that bitcoin will follow the drawn bearish pitchfork until it breaks the long-term supports.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
Bitcoin doesn't seem that it will close above the drawn band line for November. Currently breaking few major supporting MA's. Obviously, it's not looking good.
Expecting that bitcoin will follow the drawn bearish pitchfork until it breaks the long-term supports.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
Related Ideas
Basic Monthly MACD structural labelling. Fairly Bullish.