First of all we are going to identify Supports and resistances, Okey Finish
First let me explain why I put these areas as support, well first of all, if we realize in the area of 43k to 47k dollars there is a great demand to buy BTC from the bulls.
Then we can realize a high demand in the 30k to 33k. Which is consistent with the old investor's idea that BTC could drop to 32k.
And finally 22k which is a quite remarkable demand zone
We can realize that after a big bullish rally for the first time we have had a fall of 9 sequential patterns in a row.
And If we find out, BTC broke both the EMA20 and SMA50. Down with an exact correction of 27.21% from the highest point to the lowest point. Being one of the most extensive corrections. Currently in Bitcoin and being the first to have 9 fully followed bearish patterns.
Currently BTC is trying to get back on top of the moving averages. But sadly we still can't see enough strength to indicate that we can get back to that bullish point.
If we realize. BTC does not have too much volume, although this is not so literal. Since the volume can appear or leave quite quickly, since cryptocurrencies do not depend on schedules. You can use, sell and buy at any time.
Oh and it should be added, that BTC would need to be above 60k to be able to confirm that the moving averages did not cross down. In the worst case that this is not achieved, we could see a crossover and a possible drop a little higher.
If we take notice of BTC, it seems to try to retest the 30 in RSI levels. This would represent a possible Bearish, although the RSI could push higher. Later I will say why.
If we go to MACD, we can see that it is the first time that the MACD is quite bearish. But in the last days since the closing of futures contracts on March 24th. We can notice the loss of bearish strength and trying the bulls gaining strength at this point.
PiCycle Indicator.
If we realize PiCycle is an indicator which uses two moving averages. A 350 x 2 divided by a 111-period fast moving line. Which when there is a cross, even if it is minimal, places top. And this generates a setback of 50 to 70% since 2010, this indicator has been successful for setbacks a total of 4 times. Including current
It should be added that a fall similar to March 2020. It could be totally Possible.
2020 / 2021
And I really don't deny that there is some similarity. But personally I do not share this idea.
And it should be noted that this is a combination of the previous BTC falls. Where it can be visualized that a fall to 36k is totally probable.
Oket Patterns.
But lets go OB
What is OB?
Well, the OB is an area in which large institutions (Banks, Hedge Fund, Investment Funds, etc.) place their buy and sell orders, so when the price arrives there it reacts quickly and leans in the opposite direction. The easiest way to identify the order blocks is by looking at the last candle of a bullish or bearish movement, therefore we will have two types of order block, a bearish OB and another bullish OB (bearish or bullish) which you will see in any time frame but the greater be this more "strength" you will have the OB, below I show you an example.
What is a Bullish Order Block?
As you can see in the following image highlighted in green there is a bullish OB which is the last candle of the bearish movement.
Bullish Order Block (bullish OB)
What is a Bearish Order Block?
As you can see in the following image highlighted in red there is a bearish OB which is the last candle of the bullish movement.
Okey Knowing the OBs, let's see M pattern
In graph 1d we can see an M pattern, but it is really unfinished. And it's apparently having a pullback. I say apparently, because it really does not fully comply with the M pattern, but it should be added that the 55k order blocks are quite strong at a Bearish. At this point BTC could try to go higher or lower. Depending on what new position most people take.
Also with the closing of contracts we could take a strong bullish force and bounce up above the EMA and SMA
Finally, what is my idea?
Well I have two scenarios. I think there could be a pullback towards 32k to 36k. Or even less. But I consider it impossible to go below 20k USDT.Concluding a big fall. Then I wait for a double cycle. A pullback, then a possible bullish similar to 2013. Although the last few years look a lot like 2013 itself. This could be bad as it would indicate a possible downfall from now on.
So my bearish idea is that the pullback is unsuccessful and breaks down heading towards 32k.
And after this fall take a bullish path towards 100k Dollars.
and in bullish case, that the institutions take bullish positions as of April30, rejecting the bearish out going towards 100k dollars. For this we should successfully retest the EMA and SMA to be able to indicate an upward path.
Conclusion:
We are aware that BTC will have the closing of contracts this April 30.
What does this mean?
Well, in the futures leveraged term. There is something called a contract.
These are often used to take a position either long or short.
These will expire on March 30th.
This may reduce the bearish force, but currently most institutions continue to maintain a bearish position. I'm really not optimistic.
Since the market currently for BTC is not positive.
We could emphasize 3 important things.
- Judicial problems in India, Turkey.
- Increase in taxes in different countries. United States, Canada.
- Hashrate problem in China, the largest BTC mining provider.
- Overvaluation in MRVZ and Wallet Sizes indicators of LookingBitcoin.
- Reduction of 400 wallets of 1000 BTC, this amount of sale has not happened for 2 years.
- And differences between exchange pairs between different brokers
Actually I consider that the greater probability is that we can take a bullish path after a stronger correction. But I didn't want to rule out any ideas. At present the statistics show greater upward force. But in a few days the contracts will expire and new ones will appear.
Hopefully everything is fine, but I don't think BTC will drop below $ 32k.
These corrections are necessary and make us have a healthier market.
So I am really optimistic and in the long term I will continue to hold BTC no matter what.
Although I took a precaution and sold 50% of mine for 63k. And buy back at 47k.
If you liked the analysis I would like to know your comment.
Thanks
First let me explain why I put these areas as support, well first of all, if we realize in the area of 43k to 47k dollars there is a great demand to buy BTC from the bulls.
Then we can realize a high demand in the 30k to 33k. Which is consistent with the old investor's idea that BTC could drop to 32k.
And finally 22k which is a quite remarkable demand zone
We can realize that after a big bullish rally for the first time we have had a fall of 9 sequential patterns in a row.
And If we find out, BTC broke both the EMA20 and SMA50. Down with an exact correction of 27.21% from the highest point to the lowest point. Being one of the most extensive corrections. Currently in Bitcoin and being the first to have 9 fully followed bearish patterns.
Currently BTC is trying to get back on top of the moving averages. But sadly we still can't see enough strength to indicate that we can get back to that bullish point.
If we realize. BTC does not have too much volume, although this is not so literal. Since the volume can appear or leave quite quickly, since cryptocurrencies do not depend on schedules. You can use, sell and buy at any time.
Oh and it should be added, that BTC would need to be above 60k to be able to confirm that the moving averages did not cross down. In the worst case that this is not achieved, we could see a crossover and a possible drop a little higher.
If we take notice of BTC, it seems to try to retest the 30 in RSI levels. This would represent a possible Bearish, although the RSI could push higher. Later I will say why.
If we go to MACD, we can see that it is the first time that the MACD is quite bearish. But in the last days since the closing of futures contracts on March 24th. We can notice the loss of bearish strength and trying the bulls gaining strength at this point.
PiCycle Indicator.
If we realize PiCycle is an indicator which uses two moving averages. A 350 x 2 divided by a 111-period fast moving line. Which when there is a cross, even if it is minimal, places top. And this generates a setback of 50 to 70% since 2010, this indicator has been successful for setbacks a total of 4 times. Including current
It should be added that a fall similar to March 2020. It could be totally Possible.
2020 / 2021
And I really don't deny that there is some similarity. But personally I do not share this idea.
And it should be noted that this is a combination of the previous BTC falls. Where it can be visualized that a fall to 36k is totally probable.
Oket Patterns.
But lets go OB
What is OB?
Well, the OB is an area in which large institutions (Banks, Hedge Fund, Investment Funds, etc.) place their buy and sell orders, so when the price arrives there it reacts quickly and leans in the opposite direction. The easiest way to identify the order blocks is by looking at the last candle of a bullish or bearish movement, therefore we will have two types of order block, a bearish OB and another bullish OB (bearish or bullish) which you will see in any time frame but the greater be this more "strength" you will have the OB, below I show you an example.
What is a Bullish Order Block?
As you can see in the following image highlighted in green there is a bullish OB which is the last candle of the bearish movement.
Bullish Order Block (bullish OB)
What is a Bearish Order Block?
As you can see in the following image highlighted in red there is a bearish OB which is the last candle of the bullish movement.
Okey Knowing the OBs, let's see M pattern
In graph 1d we can see an M pattern, but it is really unfinished. And it's apparently having a pullback. I say apparently, because it really does not fully comply with the M pattern, but it should be added that the 55k order blocks are quite strong at a Bearish. At this point BTC could try to go higher or lower. Depending on what new position most people take.
Also with the closing of contracts we could take a strong bullish force and bounce up above the EMA and SMA
Finally, what is my idea?
Well I have two scenarios. I think there could be a pullback towards 32k to 36k. Or even less. But I consider it impossible to go below 20k USDT.Concluding a big fall. Then I wait for a double cycle. A pullback, then a possible bullish similar to 2013. Although the last few years look a lot like 2013 itself. This could be bad as it would indicate a possible downfall from now on.
So my bearish idea is that the pullback is unsuccessful and breaks down heading towards 32k.
And after this fall take a bullish path towards 100k Dollars.
and in bullish case, that the institutions take bullish positions as of April30, rejecting the bearish out going towards 100k dollars. For this we should successfully retest the EMA and SMA to be able to indicate an upward path.
Conclusion:
We are aware that BTC will have the closing of contracts this April 30.
What does this mean?
Well, in the futures leveraged term. There is something called a contract.
These are often used to take a position either long or short.
These will expire on March 30th.
This may reduce the bearish force, but currently most institutions continue to maintain a bearish position. I'm really not optimistic.
Since the market currently for BTC is not positive.
We could emphasize 3 important things.
- Judicial problems in India, Turkey.
- Increase in taxes in different countries. United States, Canada.
- Hashrate problem in China, the largest BTC mining provider.
- Overvaluation in MRVZ and Wallet Sizes indicators of LookingBitcoin.
- Reduction of 400 wallets of 1000 BTC, this amount of sale has not happened for 2 years.
- And differences between exchange pairs between different brokers
Actually I consider that the greater probability is that we can take a bullish path after a stronger correction. But I didn't want to rule out any ideas. At present the statistics show greater upward force. But in a few days the contracts will expire and new ones will appear.
Hopefully everything is fine, but I don't think BTC will drop below $ 32k.
These corrections are necessary and make us have a healthier market.
So I am really optimistic and in the long term I will continue to hold BTC no matter what.
Although I took a precaution and sold 50% of mine for 63k. And buy back at 47k.
If you liked the analysis I would like to know your comment.
Thanks