The matching green lines on the chart and the RSI show a bearish divergence which indicates a downward move is coming.
Price currently bounced off of the 50MA (pink) and is headed towards a minor trend line from the June 27th peak (green dotted). If price fails to break above, I'd expect BTC to drop under the 50MA towards the green base line/0.5 Fib. It might find support there for a while but eventually it would succumb to the sellers and drop to the 200MA/volume support (green box).
However, I believe BTC will break above the minor trend line and retest the 0.618 Fib/downtrend line from the 2017 peak (~13K). There are no probabilities to support this. It's simply my opinion based upon my estimated timeline and observations of where most alts are positioned in relation to their long term baseline supports. If BTC were to drop here, it would be devastating to alts and the last time I pointed that out BTC moved up, alts were able to recover and I believe that will happen here. That said, I don't see BTC breaking above the red downtrend line anytime soon and based on my previous charts BTC needs to correct in the $6-8k range before retesting/breaking its ATH. With that in mind, I am going to exit my alt positions when BTC approaches those resistances.
It's important to note volume is well under the moving average which implies a decisive move is coming. My best estimate is that price will move into the green circle before the red.
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BTC has broken below the 50MA and should find support at the lower trend line (green)/0.5 Fib. Now that BTC has made its decisive move, I believe it'll be tougher for BTC to break above the 50MA and the minor trend line (green dotted). The good news is that alts have held pretty well despite BTC dropping and some have risen. I am taking this opportunity to exit. Just because they're at long term supports doesn't mean they can't break below and capital preservation is key.
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BTC is at the bottom trend line support (green). It should find support here and retest the 50MA / minor downtrend line (green dotted).
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Projected 50MA: ~10.6k Minor downtrend line: ~11.5k
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50MA is obviously a moving target so consider the quick rebound the revised 50MA target is 10.8k
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50MA target reached.
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BTC is testing support at the bottom trendline/0.5 Fib ~$10,150. Let's see if it holds.
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BTC dipped below the 0.5 FIB/lower trendline support and should it cross back over it's likely to retest the 50MA and possibly the minor downtrend line (dotted).
50MA Target: ~10.7k Minor downtrend line: ~11.3k
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50MA target reached.
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Here's an update with markups in teal/yellow.
Basically we're still within a consolidation range with pressure indicating a downward move. That said, BTC is right on the RSI support and could see a reversal here. There's significant overhead resistance with the green dotted downtrend line, 0.5 Fib and 50MA so it'll be interesting to see if BTC will retest/overcome it. Regardless, the move here is to wait and see as there are too many conflicting signals to make an advantageous trade.
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A look back at some of the old charts. First chart was the old bump and run reversal that shows support at the daily 200MA. I'll be taking one of several long term positions here.
We're in the reversal zone with about ~25% of variance before it finds support and reverses. I'll be taking long term positions throughout this area according to my capital management plan.
Be interested to hear your thoughts of the current play
Regera
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@PeterJamesTrade, Wait. There's conflicting signals here, one is a prolonged bull flag and the other of a descending triangle. I'm inclined to believe it will go lower given the bearish divergence but all we can do is wait and see.
LTSInvestor
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Rising wedge happening... looks like a reversal is incoming
alder6969
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When looking at your charts I have always noticed that you use MA's instead of EMA's. I know the 50MA and 200MA is important but is there a reason why you don't use the QEMA (10,50,100,200) tool? I'm just curious as I see the trend lines bounce often off the EMA's.
Regera
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@alder6969, It's a matter of charting preferences. For the same reason I don't use log charts, I prefer simple MAs because I like to keep things "pure" for the lack of a better term.
alder6969
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@Regera, I can understand that. Also looking at the Fib 0.618. Do you still feel it will pass the 50MA and head towards the that area based on the Alt's?
Regera
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@alder6969, It's really tough to say. I'm disappointed with the alt market and am finding it hard to put much faith in them. Long term supports have been pierced and I believe we will see a major drop if BTC moves down to the $6-8k range. However, I'm seeing a bunch of potential MACD bullish crossovers so maybe there's a small bump on the horizon. As for BTC making it to that Fib resistance... I believe BTC is going to have a tough time overcoming the minor downtrend line now that it's broken downward with authority. I'd rather sell at the resistance and consider buying the throwback if it breaks above.
Cryptonite_trader
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I like your analysis
Regera
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@Cryptonite_trader, Thank you. Looks like your timeline and mine are quite similar.