Market trends and cycles are a direct function of human psychology and the varied emotions during each phase. Bitcoin has been following the classical market cycle since its inception and there is no reason it won't follow it in the future.
Charles Dow was the first to make thorough effort to express the general trend of markets. Enjoy the analysis!
If there is no black swan event, what might be some reasons why "Possibility:2" happens? Is there a way to know which phase has started, or is this chart always observed in hindsight?
MohitSorout
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@ank2302, no two Bear markets are alike, and neither are any two Bull markets. Possibility #2 in my analysis is the final phase of a Bear market which usually takes place but there have been bear markets which have developed no marked Phase III (i.e. possibility #2), as in April 1939.
The point of my educational post is to identify which phases Bull and Bear markets tend to go through and which phase the market is in right now. One thing worth keeping in mind is if you know the symptoms which normally accompany the last phase of a Bull market, for example, you are less likely to be deluded by its exciting atmosphere. Same logic applies to different phases of the Bear market as well.
There are ways to identify which phase the market is in right now. For example we can tell with certainty that we're in Panic phase of Bear market as there has been accelerated sell-offs with climactic volumes, something that was missing for almost entirity of this Bear cycle. If we begin to consolidate in the current range (marked with blue box in the chart) we can safely say we've entered a new Bull Market and accumulation has begun. However, if we see continued sell-off but with less speed and lesser volume, we can consider phase III of this Bear to have commenced.