Im an amateur. I have 0 credibility so dont take my word for it but I do notice a few things :
- If we assume we have been crawling out of the bear market this past couple of months , dont you think it should have been slow and steady like a healthy trend suggests. The previous bear market transitioned into a bull market uptrend on a 23 ish degree angle. This current trend is pushing 45 degrees. There is no real bottoming structure present nor any retest. You can see in the charts that there are candles that need to be fixed around the 3500-4500 area ( orderbook is messed up )
- Screaming red NVT Signal
- Everything went too fast. Compared to the last bear market , we spent a good amount of time in the hole and based on the fact it took the current bear market longer to capitulate , you'd think it would spent more time in the hole as well.
- This whole rally seems to be a retracement into the .618-.786 area of the entire bear market. This coincides perfectly why the NVT is flashing red. It will probably stay red till the 13.5k-16k USD area. I do not believe this is the real bullrun , sure I am trading the current price action but im not buying the fact that this is THE bullrun.
Ipso facto , Im not believing it , we will see prices around 13.5k-16k and then have a severe down move with targets of around 3.5k-4.5k and possibly even lower ( 2500-2800 area ). Im talking about the 2nd leg of the capitulation. When ? The quarter ends in a few days and by the way pa is developing now , i expect the high to be made in july / august followed by some serious FUD ( ban / hack or whatever ) that would justify the immense crash.
Make fun of me if you want , Im probably wrong but just wanted to put it out there.
Comment
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They went absolutely cray cray. State of the market : Futures gap x 2 now , FOMO in full effect , NVT super high , Tether printing money like its toiletpaper. Shorts getting squeezed. No healthy correction(s). Yeah this doesnt end well. Use tight stops or if you dont trust , just stay out of the market.
Retracing usually occurs between the .618 and .786 area , this doesnt fix the orderbook on the way down so unless the decide to bring in the wickerman , a new low seems more and more likely. Still expecting prices around 15-16k early in july for them then to drop some ban / hack or tether implosion which will be the catalyst to bring it all down.
All the noobs think the bears are done
LMFAO these kids about to get rekt
proficy
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Bitcoin in 10 years of existence never left its long term bull trend, the last 'bear market" was a correction of the previous parabole.
mightytrader
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I actually think we are in the climax. I think too many people think it's just going to keep shooting up..... And too many people now afraid to short. But this is the beginning of the dump. People will try to "buy the dip".
Nova44
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@mightytrader, here is the thing. If you look at the longs vs shorts on btc , they are around even. You could make an argument that the shorts are higher. The majority of the time , it goes in the direction where the most pain is and that is to destroy the short sellers. Think about it , everyone is thinking i need to buy the dip but a good amount of people are thinking '' this cant continue like this , time to short '' . Be honest , if it reaches 13.5k , do you think people will still think about shorting ? Most of them will give up hope by then and agree that this really might be the bullrun and thats how the market makers get you , time and time again. This is a game for savages and its ruthless.
mightytrader
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@Nova44, I stay away from that chart. It is information that is provided by the Whales like Phil Potter over at Bitfinex . We don't know who the actual shorts and longs are. But for example, I use Kraken exchange which has leverage and margin. So, we don't know what the true amount of leveraged traders are.
mightytrader
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@Nova44, I believe that this rally is primarily to fool all the retail traders like you and I. So, I would agree it could go to 12-13.5k from TA.... but I don't know... What we saw tonight is just wash-trading momentum to scare us from shorting, IMO.
Jeff_Cryptopop
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@mightytrader, @Nova44 I have to interject and agree on the wash trading bit. The only ones believing in this rally are 1. Bagholders, 2. Exchanges and 3. Crypto celebrities would are likely in on this or need it to restore their credibility. (They're all a bunch of liars anyhow.) Even if the manipulators think they can create a new all time high with this, we have made no new supports and markets always have a way of making the appropriate correction. (Honestly, this could turn into a gigantic ABC correction, where we are now coming to the top of B.)
deactivatedaccount123
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@Jeff_Cryptopop, This is IMO an absolutely outright textbooks b wave rally.
mightytrader
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@Jeff_Cryptopop, Here is the thing though... they can keep wash trading to 50k or more.... I mean, someone would catch on by that point but.... they could.
However, these markets are getting harder and harder to trade. I think however... to some extent this rally could be some institutions buying it up. But price will come back down so they can buy more.
If institutions are buying now.... these markets will eventually become very liquid like Forex.
However, I hate liquidity because the moves will get slower and slower and smaller range... like Forex. Forex is a nightmare to trade because it forces retail traders (like myself) onto small timeframes with high leverage.
I mean... some of theses currencies take like 5 years just to 10% in one direction. A complete joke... so the forexers have this cute little name for their ultra-slow price movement... they call it a "PIP" (percentage in point).... Because ForEx is a BIG SCAM and destroys little guys.
And that's where Bitcoin is heading to....
Seriously, I could care less if Bitcoin goes to 100k... Because that is only 10x (actually 8-9x) from here and it will probably take a couple years at least. BIG DEAL... There were marijuan stocks that 30x'ed in a couple weeks.... and I don't have to feel bad about only taking a chunk of the move.
mightytrader
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@MC_Peewee - (reply to you too if you are interested^)
LMFAO these kids about to get rekt