As we struggle with no on the crypto market we want to remind you why we believe BTC will not fall below $5800. We made such analysis on April 11th and it is still in force.
This analysis is very fundamental. It shows why we have a very strong resistance at $5800 - $6000.
It is not an easy task. We have to get back to the basics.
Why is it even possible to have a BTC , to make any transaction with BTC? Have you ever thought about it?
We don't mean a mobile phone, public address, private key, exchanges and so on.
There is a whole infrastructure, people, companies involved.
Developers, miners and people who want to use it (buyers and sellers). That's it.
That is the whole magic. Without them, there was no crypto world today as it already looks like.
Here are the key factors:
1. Satoshi Nakamoto has/have created BTC . They figured it out how to create, safe, digital asset combining it with the whole network of miners.
2. Miners give essential infrastructure to maintain the network and make it possible for BTC to be transferred by 3rd parties.
3. Finally, we have a network effect. It means more and more people want to have, buy, transfer, hodl it.
So here are 3 essential factors to make everything work.
The first point mentioned here is pretty obvious and we won't go into it any further in here. One important information: Satoshi Nakamoto is in possession of around 1mln of BTC . So this is nearly 7 bln of dollars. They have enough money for the development of the project as well as keeping the price at any level buying or selling their (crypto) money.
The second point is here very very important in this puzzle. To keep this network all miners and nodes has to be duly rewarded.
Mining effectiveness /profitability is directly connected to the price of the electricity. 90% of costs in the time span are electricity costs.
So how much $ does it cost to obtain 1 BTC? Good question ha?
Most of the miners actually mine in the pools.
Here is the structure of the pools worldwide:
Pool___Blocks___ Share %
unknown___ 886___ 20%
BTC .com___ 752___ 17%
AntPool___ 602___ 13.61%
Slush___ 494___ 11.17%
BTC .TOP___ 495___ 11.19%
unknown___ 886___ 20%
DiscusFish / F2Pool___ 405___ 9.16%
Most of them operate in EU, US some of them in China. Please look at the link.
We have to now figure it out where most miners are located. We haven't found 100% reliable data but here is something helpful.
Distribution of the nodes worldwide. https://bitnodes.earn.com/
So here is looks on numbers:
Country____Percentage/share__Cost/mining 1 BTC in USD
• UK_________ 3,12____________ 8402
• Russia______2,87____________ 4675
We can assume that diggers/miners/rigs are more or less same distributed as the nodes.
When we calculate the weighted average (depending on the methodology as we did not take all the countries into account) we have the minimum price when it is even profitable. We range from 5874$ to 7530$. When price significantly dips someone has to take action (Satoshi Nakamoto?) and buy BTC to get the level of the BTC price when digging will be profitable again.
Satoshi Nakamoto takes care of that business to run smoothly as much as possible.
Without the minimum price, there will be no network. Without a network, there will be no BTC . Without BTC many people/organizations (including Satoshi Nakamoto) will be totally broke.
We had 5 tests of this level since the beginning of the month. Each time if was defended.
So Traders! Does this analysis make you feel calmer? How do you feel about this?
PS: Useful links:
Prices of the electricity across the world https://www.elitefixtures.com/blog/post/...
The list of the wealthiest wallets:
Do you think that Satoshi Nakamoto is actually leveraging his equity in BTC to stabilize the markets?
I have never considered that idea. Also, if Nakamoto is, in fact, keeping the BTC network running smoothly by buying at the support zone and maintaining the profitability of mining--which is essential in keeping the BTC network running--How would he purchase such massive amounts of BTC with fiat, if his entire net worth is in BTC (supposing that his suspected wallets have not made any transactions)?
We thought about that how. The Answer is quite simple - most probably they use OTC ( over the counter) trade which means they don't use crypto exchanges to get USD in exchange of BTC. Most probably they know influential and very rich people or they are super rich already, Maybe they live in the Silicon Valey maybe Tokio...