Bitcoin monthly channel heading to the 2024 halving
The channel is drawn to what provides the best fit. In this case, it is the candle close. This is the best fit because the candle wick in Dec 2017 was relatively short-lived; it lasted about 2.5 days.
However, the dotted arrow is drawn, considering the possibility that the price might overshoot out of the channel again. Even if it happens for a single day.
Based on the analysis above we are looking to possibly hit these price targets:
After the top, we would see an 80% as in the previous cycles taking us down to $60,000.
In the past, it has taken us about a year to bottom out and an extra four to six months to begin the rally. However, it is challenging to imagine recovery times as prolonged for the next bear market. The reason is we've seen a considerable uptick in US regulation and institutions interest. Ex:
For those reasons, I've estimated the next bear market to last for significantly less time. Six months, half of its predecessors seems a reasonable approximation, plus-minus a couple of months.
Something to observe is that in the previous two cycles, the price has gone down somewhere below the channel equilibrium line right as we approach the next halving. The blue circles and pink vertical line. That is an area to keep in mind for now. I would consider it irrelevant if the spot ETFs are approved in combination with other positive news.
However, the dotted arrow is drawn, considering the possibility that the price might overshoot out of the channel again. Even if it happens for a single day.
Based on the analysis above we are looking to possibly hit these price targets:
- $200,000
- $300,000
After the top, we would see an 80% as in the previous cycles taking us down to $60,000.
In the past, it has taken us about a year to bottom out and an extra four to six months to begin the rally. However, it is challenging to imagine recovery times as prolonged for the next bear market. The reason is we've seen a considerable uptick in US regulation and institutions interest. Ex:
- The SEC is expected to make a decision on spot based ETFs by the end of October
- U.S. Banking regulators are exploring a 'roadmap' to engage with cryptocurrency (FDIC chairman)
- 5 US senators publicly support bitcoin
- BlackRock is invested in crypto companies and holds MicroStrategy shares
- Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador
For those reasons, I've estimated the next bear market to last for significantly less time. Six months, half of its predecessors seems a reasonable approximation, plus-minus a couple of months.
Something to observe is that in the previous two cycles, the price has gone down somewhere below the channel equilibrium line right as we approach the next halving. The blue circles and pink vertical line. That is an area to keep in mind for now. I would consider it irrelevant if the spot ETFs are approved in combination with other positive news.
Trade closed manually