TrendTraderz
Short

Comparing BTC to "4 stages of a bubble"

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
949 15 8
I know this was posted by another user earlier today but I waned to add more details to the chart.
TrendTraderz
2 years ago
And where this comes from,

http://media.economist.com/images/Four_stages_chart.jpg
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cameronj
2 years ago
All I see is profit ahead, fall or rise
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jobo44
2 years ago
How did you make that green line?
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TrendTraderz jobo44
2 years ago
Connected the long term support trend line.
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mcambron
2 years ago
>Problem is you could have made the same analysis with the 2 previous "bubbles" that didn't pop (2011 ans apr 2013). Don't you agree?
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TrendTraderz mcambron
2 years ago
Didn't pop? You might want to go back to the 2011 and 2013 charts and re-check your analysis. Don't get confused when you hear somebody call an asset a bubble. Being in a bubble market does not mean the pop takes you to 0. The tech bubble in 2000 popped, that didn't mean tech died in 2000 by any definition I've read.

2011 BTC on MTGox went from about $0.75 to $31.85, then dumped to $2. That's a pop of a bubble in price
2013 BTC on MTGox went from about $13 to $265, then dumped to $49. That's a pop of a bubble in price

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aether PRO TrendTraderz
2 years ago
A significant number of tech stock did in fact go bankrupt and thus went to 0 when the tech bubble burst.
Bitcoin can go to zero as well, if it fails to become the dominating standard of crypto-payment that many foresee.
I, for one, anticipate that the deflationary bias that made this extreme rise in value possible in the first place will also be what kills bitcoin. It will never come to work as a stable unit of exchange with that design. The crypto-coin principle will be here to stay though, no doubt about it.
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TrendTraderz aether
2 years ago
I didn't say it couldn't go to 0, I'm saying the definition of a bubble popping does not represent a market going to zero. It's just an over valuation at current knowledge of future potential coming back to reality. The tech market did not go to zero, the market came back to reality. Bitcoin coming back to reality might mean less interest in it and thus some BTC companies going bankrupt... that has nothing to do with the definition of a bubble in a market.
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mcambron TrendTraderz
2 years ago
Agree with you 100% about 2011 and 2013. But isn't the retracement to 520 after a 1250 high the equivalent? And couldn't we be at the same stage as the 200ish price after the 2013 "bubble", ie after that the price skyrocketed again.

I agree with most bearish technical analysis going on. But my guts tell me there could be something different going on here again, as it did in 2013.
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TrendTraderz mcambron
2 years ago
Yes, the dump to $520 could very well be the pop. I would say that is only a matter of opinion though. And in my opinion, price didn't fall to the mean so it did not pop yet. Also, price jumped immediately back up showing the large majority of investors viewed those prices as too low, meaning they still viewed BTC in an over valued manner (if this is a bubble). Remember, nobody can put a value on BTC yet so this is pure speculation and emotional trading/investing.

This isn't a prediction either, just a coincidence that the chart is playing out exactly how a bubble was defined on a graph.

But sit back and think about $970 BTC as it slowly edges forward... it feels like we are returning to normal prices right? Take a look at the graph.

Since we are trading off technicals, emotion is what we believe drives the market and our decisions. This graph simply spells out the emotions investors go through during a bubble phase.
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RamonOfSouza
2 years ago
Log scale please
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TrendTraderz RamonOfSouza
2 years ago
Log scale wouldn't benefit us here. I'm merely stating the uncanny similarities in the charted definition of a bubble and the BTC chart. Read my first reply to see what I was comparing the BTC chart to.
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TrendTraderz
2 years ago
Broke $450. Thought to have been a heavy support area. I think it's safe to say we are entering the fear stage.
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TrendTraderz
2 years ago
...and we reflect
+2 Reply
Ankurjai
2 years ago
nice analysis my friend
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