Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is starting to drop... We can tell the bears are trying to gain control by noticing a close below EMA10 (green). Momentum down is starting to build up.
For indicators, we are using EMAs, RSI, and the MACD.
The EMAs are now below BTCUSD while prices are trending lower, meaning that they can work as support levels... We are likely to see MA200 tested as support...
The MACD is showing a bearish cross and pointing down.
The RSI moved below 50, sitting at 47.7 now, and trending down strong.
All these signals are bearish but remember that everything can change anytime with just a few candles close.
So we are looking at a bearish Bitcoin and we have targets ready and all, but we remain open for change... What would you do if prices start rising rather than continue to drop?
Having a strategy is the best way to end up a winner when you decide to begin trading... So take your time, always, before you buy into any coin.
Namaste.
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Altcoins...
Waves | WAVESBTC Dec 28, 2019
district0x | DNTBTC Feb 7
Perlin | PERLBTC Jan 23
Walton | WTCBTC Jan 20
Ark | ARKBTC Oct 12, 2019
adToken | ADTBTC
Binance Coin Starts To Move | Enjoy The Profits
PIVX Is Trading Above Resistance | Can Move Soon (85%+ Easy)
If bitcoin drops 10% I can buy the drop and win win when btc bounces.
If btc goes up then i'm 50% long and will benefit from it :)
AlanSantana
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@Confucius-The-Great, Thanks for sharing your strategy, sounds good... How about the altcoins, how big is your stack?
Confucius-The-Great
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@alanmasters, I'm a little crazy sometimes, i'm learning so much all the time about trading and when I reach a new level of trading skill - I tend to change strategy, I have already changed my strategy since I wrote it hahaha. I'm an pretty intelligent autist, and I always try to find the best way to do anything.
I try to adopt Crypto Krowns professional wall street mindset and strategies ( bought his trading courses with my crypto profits - from hodling "the divi project" divicoin for 1,5 year with 100% of my 2 times -75% shattered portfolio from 2018 lol - going from -75% alt coins int Divi coin that also dropped 75% after lol ).
So my new strategy from today is not set in stone 100% but something like this:
20% on bitmex longing btc with a 5x ( will hold to the top is my idea ) With a 17% liquidation = just under MA 200 = bearmarket if btc goes out of the channel and down there.
20% is reserved to Short btc with 5x ( counter trade my self on bybit or a second bitmex account ) in case btc should end in a red candle today and maybe go test/retest MA10 and EMA 21 and break it to test the bottom of the channel, or just end the up trend/bullmarket.
Or to short btc in case of a normal pullback like the one we just saw that you called :) Then I will profit on my btc short 5x and sell the bottom of the test of MA 10 or MA 21. + Not lose a dime on my 10% btc 5x long when btc bounces.
So my 10% standby short trade is like an insurance when/if the btc price drops no matter when the bottom is hit.
I will ofc sell my btc 5x long before liquidation if we break the channel and keep the short or maybe add to my short =)
It looks too good to be true/perfect in theory.
Human error is the biggest risk factor, risk spread over 2 exchanges is optimal bitmex/bybit in case of a hack. Bybit also offer to hold your funds in usdt to avoid volatility when not in a trade.
The remaining 60% of my portfolio I am still not sure.
Maybe 10% in Eth at 3x ( due to higher volatility and eth being far from the bottom of the channel and a future test of the bottom of the channel ) But 3x Eth is more for training to short eth when it will test the bottom of the channel + I want to see green numbers even when btc goes sideways =)
This trading strategy combines investing/"buy and hold" with more advanced/professional techniques. Also less risk and more profit than trading sub top 25 altcoins without margin - if you execute your strategy after the plan. But with a 15-17% liquidation limit and a counter short trade plan there is room for human error to some degree from my side because I am pushing my limits and want to sleep well haha =)
And ofc 10% is reserved for a counter trade for my Long 3x Eth trade also.
Need to train/learn to trade support/ressistance levels with margin too, but only like 100 usd a trade in the start. That style scares me a bit because there is like no room for error and you could end in a losing streak that mess you up mentally for a long time and stuff. So only tiny trades until my P/L is good and my initial 1000 usd has grown as a result. =) I dont see it realistic that I will get liquidated 10 times in a row or in some way or shape lose the initial 1000 usd like I read most starting traders do. I dont want to seem arrogant thinking I am better than others. But I am most of the time sadly. Because I am better at not making medium or huge mistakes like most human beings do in general. But I got some other drawbacks in life that they don't got on the other side =) ( different strengths/weaknesses )
Have a great day, to anyone, who was smart enough to read this to the end =)
If you agree/like my thinking, and dont think I am an idiot after the ending remark, feel free to follow or send me a personal message =)
I have not thought about what my strategy will be with the remaining part of my portfolio yet. I just created these strategies within the last 24 hours.
Pro_Trader_HTBB
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Always love reading your analysis Alan. You are a master!
Here is my snapshot, bear in mind it's after hours and I've had 7 Corona's and 2 bourbons and been encouraged by peers to do a drunk analysis for future reference hence why I didn't publish solo. Tried to be as spot on as I can which means none of the scenarios in arrows will work out lol :P I am for the yellow one in particular to play out. Let's see as I am not good at guessing games in manipulated markets but will give it a go based on the 0.618 bear cycle indicator.
Basically, that thick blue line on the 1 hour chart is your make or break line. 2 closes below it and we go down to the fib levels indicated. Green line is a trend line that dates back to September last year on a different time frame chart so may get as low as that but if so, cheaper rebuy on the long position!
Blue dotted line is a trend line that BTC may bounce off to keep it's uptrend.
Basically, right now on the hourly chart if we reject here at this 0.618 level on my hourly chart we go down. Refer to my analysis on the bear cycle 0.618 indicator.
If we break through the EMA 10 we may surge back up or get rejected at MA 21. Once we get up to 10k exactly, we may find strong resistance. Once it gets to this level I suspect a break of the level. If not, we have started the bear cycle again which would be total contradiction to the market sentiment and behavior.
Timings of arrows are a guess based on past angles of market movements.
Fib retracement indicators used at various levels to show resistance.
Of course this could all be nonsense and BTC could drop to $9500 or rise to 10k at any moment now the whale cartel are timing their trades to liquidate retail investors. :P
Keep up the awesome analysis Alan, you are one of the best! Apologies bombarding your superior knowledge and analysis!
AlanSantana
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@HowToBuyBitcoindotnetdotau, Thanks a lot for sharing the full detailed analysis here... Appreciated.
Rest in usdt.
If bitcoin drops 10% I can buy the drop and win win when btc bounces.
If btc goes up then i'm 50% long and will benefit from it :)