I have been following BTC for roughly a year and have witnessed and personally held multiple positions during it's boom and even briefly held around the ATH at 18.3k before selling. When it comes to Tech Analysis I'm new and not seasoned like many of the other pros you will find around here, but despite this, I want to share my idea, hear out any criticism and learn from it. I believe what we are seeing is a possible elliot wave formation / correction to the range below, after which BTC will stabilize and stop falling. Why?
From my chart, you can see that there are multiple trends BTC could have followed and the possible price that BTC could have been today. By utilizing two assumptions here, I theorize the price range that BTC will reach and become well supported.
Theory #1 - Price Supply:Demand theory, I believe there are potential buyers in these ranges that are currently priced out of the market. For example: when the product of Tide is $100 a bottle, many people will forgo doing laundry with Tide or use an alternative those costs less. However, as the price for Tide declines, more potential buyers are able to afford the product, hence increased support for more units at lower prices.
Theory#2 - Volume. As the price declines, we will reach crucial support levels and previous trends that might come into play. As this happens, volume on trading should increase. If you look at the chart, you can see on average more volume is being traded over the past 3 months and the huge spikes in volume usually precede bullish uptrends or breaish breakdowns. (Dependent on multiple factors.) In this case, I am making the assumption that the support levels will come into play, volume will pick up and prices will stabilize.
By utilizing these 2 theories, along with the Elliot wave principal we make the assumption of the price target.
For your information:
FIB RET started from bottom (Bear Market) 1k anchored to 19.9k
Trends starting from price movement from 1k, 1.7k, 1.9k, 3.1K and finally 5.7K on the bottom of the movement ( Co-related to Lowest RSI)
At the points where all trend lines converge, they make up our price. (Assuming the market remained bullish from their onset)
No precise measurements taken for Elliot waves, just likely movements dependent on these factors:
To Point A - Already given to us.
To Point B - Based on overhead resistance (50 EMA)
To Point C - Movement up due to RSI and that no market drops straight or moves straight up forever.
To Point D - Should actually be around 8.3k just around the FIB ret level. (Drops due to new overhead resistance, 50 EMA moving down, along with 200 EMA strong overhead pressure)
To Point E - Resting place of the market, ends Elliot wave and hopefully the bear market.
Finally, any breaks upward and above the 200 EMA immediately refute this analysis. And before closing, I just want to firmly state that this TA is purely for my entertainment and is not financial advice at all. Before making any market moves, please do your own market research :)
Any comments or feedback greatly appreciated,
-Gendark
From my chart, you can see that there are multiple trends BTC could have followed and the possible price that BTC could have been today. By utilizing two assumptions here, I theorize the price range that BTC will reach and become well supported.
Theory #1 - Price Supply:Demand theory, I believe there are potential buyers in these ranges that are currently priced out of the market. For example: when the product of Tide is $100 a bottle, many people will forgo doing laundry with Tide or use an alternative those costs less. However, as the price for Tide declines, more potential buyers are able to afford the product, hence increased support for more units at lower prices.
Theory#2 - Volume. As the price declines, we will reach crucial support levels and previous trends that might come into play. As this happens, volume on trading should increase. If you look at the chart, you can see on average more volume is being traded over the past 3 months and the huge spikes in volume usually precede bullish uptrends or breaish breakdowns. (Dependent on multiple factors.) In this case, I am making the assumption that the support levels will come into play, volume will pick up and prices will stabilize.
By utilizing these 2 theories, along with the Elliot wave principal we make the assumption of the price target.
For your information:
FIB RET started from bottom (Bear Market) 1k anchored to 19.9k
Trends starting from price movement from 1k, 1.7k, 1.9k, 3.1K and finally 5.7K on the bottom of the movement ( Co-related to Lowest RSI)
At the points where all trend lines converge, they make up our price. (Assuming the market remained bullish from their onset)
No precise measurements taken for Elliot waves, just likely movements dependent on these factors:
To Point A - Already given to us.
To Point B - Based on overhead resistance (50 EMA)
To Point C - Movement up due to RSI and that no market drops straight or moves straight up forever.
To Point D - Should actually be around 8.3k just around the FIB ret level. (Drops due to new overhead resistance, 50 EMA moving down, along with 200 EMA strong overhead pressure)
To Point E - Resting place of the market, ends Elliot wave and hopefully the bear market.
Finally, any breaks upward and above the 200 EMA immediately refute this analysis. And before closing, I just want to firmly state that this TA is purely for my entertainment and is not financial advice at all. Before making any market moves, please do your own market research :)
Any comments or feedback greatly appreciated,
-Gendark