Using the FUSIONGAP oscillator (Zoomed out). The FUSIONGAPS series oscillators can also be set to log-scale to determine oversold/bought condition, or bullish/bearish phase/flip of the market.
This is why I am not expecting a massive dump down to an all time low, or anything too brutal. If BTC's next move is a further downward correction, I'd expected it to drop to ~9000 USD or even ~8500 USD at the very most. Observing that there are way too many people standing on the sideline waiting to buy BTC below 10kUSD, and especially below 9kUSD.
And also quite likely, the market may instead do the opposite and move on higher, leaving those who have not bought in yet and are still waiting behind.
Hence, at the moment, I believe it is unlikely for BTC to drop lower than that -- but will need to reassess the chart when the time comes, of course.
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Will the market allow those who missed the "bottom" (or close to the bottom) to buy it the second time? I personally believe very unlikely.
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(Quote): "What about NOV 2018? It don't need to be in a bubble to crash down."
My view is that the current market condition is very different from that around Nov 18, with extremely low volume and volatility. The FUSIONGAPS oscillator shows that the market is now in a net bullish phase (i.e. all FG oscillators are significantly in the positive), in contrast to how it was in Nov18.
Furthermore, as explained above, I believe/speculate that there are enough people waiting for a dip to below 10k down to 8.5k to buy in to provide a strong safety-net support.
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Also, the lack of a stdev-squeeze in my AEONDRIFT band, tells me that it is unlikely that a massive move will occur.
However, I believe it still might, but only if the market continues to painfully move sideways for quite awhile, and a low volume and liquidity is sustained (as traders are pushed out due to the lack of volatility), allowing price to be easily pushed either way with less capital.
Will continue to keep watch on the AEONDRIFT bands + FUSIONGAP oscillators + FG-based momentum/acceleration.
No massive dump, but there is the possibility to go down to 8,800 which would make the correction exactly 50% of the bull run since leaving the bottom.
cybernetwork
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@EJ12345, That I agree. :)
Not targetting at 8800 though.. but a range from 9500 to 8500, personally, to cost average in.
oaksacorn
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"still waiting behind"....bingo
nDman_sk
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What about NOV 2018? It don't need to be in a bubble to crash down.
cybernetwork
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@nDman_sk, Hey good question. Yes I considered that briefly too, but my view is that the current market condition is very different from that coming towards Nov 18, with extremely low volume and volatility.
The FUSIONGAPS oscillator shows that the market is now in a net bullish phase (i.e. all FG oscillators are significantly in the positive), in contrast to how it was in Nov18.
Furthermore, as explained above, I believe/speculate that there are enough people waiting for a dip to below 10k down to 8.5k to buy in to provide a strong safety-net support.
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Also, the lack of a stdev-squeeze in my AEONDRIFT band, tells me that it is unlikely that a massive move will occur.
However, I believe it still might, only if the market continues to move sideways, and a low volume is sustained allowing price to be easily pushed either way with less capital.
Will continue to keep watch on the AEONDRIFT bands + FUSIONGAP oscillators + FG-based momentum/acceleration.
DAVEREXX
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Why is price up then?
cybernetwork
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@coinlife, It depends on what time-range you are talking about. This particular analysis isn't focused on that, but mainly to analyse if there is any chance BTC may see another sharp massive capitulation-like drop, like what happened in Nov18, that I see quite a number of people are predicting.
Here's my earlier 21st Aug analysis on the BTC chart on possible price action ahead. The BTCUSD price appears to have been consolidating relatively sideways so far, range bounded within a symmetrical triangle for now, with bullish green-ichimoku cloud forming ahead.
cybernetwork
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@cybernetwork, If you are referring to the wider time-range, yes BTC price is definitely up.
This may be explained with my FUSIONGAPS oscillators to show that the overall long-term market have flipped bullish since Apr-May19, as shown above in my follow-up discussion posted above. ;)
The BTC market have been on a net uptrend since then.
cybernetwork
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Note, the FG oscillator used here is the 50/15 series, which has a momentum and acceleration oscillators incorporated.