BTC is currently in a Descending Triangle both on the Daily & 3D charts:
=> 30k has been the critical psychological mark for the bulls to uphold, since we first breached all the way to the downside in May.
Therefore, should we loose this as a support, there is a high chance that we will be going down towards 20k:
As the previous ATH from the 2017 rally, it acted as resistance on the way up during this rally -albeit for a very short time. But there is no other significant support once we break the 30k.
Should we OTOH hold the 30k, the bulls would need to clearly and decisively break above 36k as lower highs, in which case we would consolidate probably for the coming months & even into 2022 between 60k & 40k: We have a huge space here between those ranges due to the sharp short break in May.
The probability is more on the bearish side currently.
when 2k? we haven't retraced the 2k zone since 2017
jamal789
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Impressive
supestv
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You can see the Heads and Shoulders pattern, the neckline of which was broken 2 weeks ago, which indeed confirms (85% reliable) that the price is going to the black line that you've drawn.
Edgy_
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@supestv, Timeframe old sport, always timeframe. 1D & Daily is Descending Triangle, Weekly you can make the argument for H&S on top as additional confirmation. Not so much due to the head (because it's been consolidating a bit too much for the head), but esp. the right shoulder is the same zone as the left shoulder.
Mind you: we haven't broken yet, we still need to see the confirmation.
supestv
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@Edgy_, we broke 3 weeks ago dude. Draw the neckline from daily body to daily body (not wick) and you will see daily candles closed below it 3 weeks ago. Last week's weekly candle closed just above the neckline - this confirms the significance of the actual neckline if you draw it properly, and this week's weekly candle started just below it and is currently way below the neckline. I know I drew the neckline correct because of all the confirmations bouncing off it time and time again for the last 3 weeks.
Edgy_
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No, charting is not geometry old sport. We have bounced of from the 30k psychological -even if we had the wicks going lower, and currently we’re descending at this level.
Usually a real break this a waterfall like event: hard to miss or not see. 😉 Sometimes, when the zones are not as clear, it can also slowly die. But I’m expecting a waterfall like drop under 30k -should the bears follow through.
If otoh the bears fake out again (unlikely), the bulls would have a real chance to hold the 30k for the coming months.
Edgy_
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Most important lesson for you: * Nothing is guaranteed* Any trade can fake out -no matter how probable it looks like, and therefore you *always* have to trade with a plan -where you know exactly *beforehand* at what level your trade is invalidated.
If we had percentages like 85% as you wrote above, this game would be too easy, but it’s not.
And obviously "85%" isn't a guarantee, but it is a heck of a lot more RELIABLE than a lot of nonsense other traders are posting. They post a single sideways wedge pattern that isn't even a rising or falling wedge with decreasing volume, and then they have an arrow pointing up.
Clearly we agree on the price direction though, but it's curious that we disagree why.