BTCUSD: Poised To Push 10K, But Far From Levels For New Longs.

BTCUSD update: Price fluctuates around the 9861 reversal zone boundary as it breaks an inside bar in an attempt to go higher. Great price action if you are long, but as price continues higher, the risk of retrace increases.

Price is now pushing further into the 9683 to 10561 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). For the short sighted, it appears that price will continue higher and higher, which is possible, but more often than not, resistance levels attract selling. The 9861 reversal zone boundary happens to be inside this wide resistance zone which emphasizes the resistance even more.

Now keep in mind, there are plenty of bullish signs that are still intact which can present a very conflicting situation. Price is maintaining a clearly bullish trend line, and the 8514 support (.382 of current bullish swing) is still intact. With bullish momentum still in play, higher prices are likely. The problem is the level of risk.

When I mention risk, I am talking about risk in terms of initiating new swing trade longs. Buying within this resistance zone is like buying at 18.5K. Yeah there is some upside left, but if you are not nimble, or just distracted by greed, you will more than likely stay in the trade if it weakness sets in. Weakness can take this market back to the 8514 level which will be a perfectly healthy and normal retrace. Do you want buy now and take that chance?

In summary, temporary weakness can engulf this market out of nowhere, especially at these levels. Price can go as high as 10561 before any signs of weakness set in which can be very seductive. At S.C., we observe best practices which simply means we buy supports and sell resistances. As great as price action looks, the predetermined levels are what help us maintain consistency, even if it means sitting out during what appears to be "hot" market moves. We want to capitalize on the herd mentality, not be part of it and that means we wait for a retrace, no matter how far the market moves without us.

Questions and comments welcome.