Hello everyone, I hope you are having an amazing day. I'm here again today with another TA on BTCUSD
Why are we dropping and what makes me think Bearish?
Death Cross at 4H booth MA and EMA
At 1D MA's are squeezing up.
Always keep an eye on MA's and EMA's they act as support or resistance.
Before I get started with the 'main' chart I want to say that I only believe this scenario to be true after the Bear Flag/Pennant as a CONFIRMED break downwards. Until then this is all invalid. To further confirm this scenario a close bellow the Downtrend (green line with breaks) is also needed, that will be at around 8.5k, after that, I must say this will all (most likely) happen. Now with that out of the way let's get started shall we? As you can read on TradingView the Drop and Fear is 'winning' and here's my scenario for this drop, the last drop, the 'best' drop. Why you may ask? Because with a Double bottom on 6k (main target) we'll start fresh, a fresh bull run will be upon us. I said 6k was the main target because there are others on that way, here are all of the targets I've laid for you (an why I did it as well)
A Double Top on the Pink Box (11.7k) was made. The run to those tops started at 6k and the target of a Double Top is the point it started so 6k for the Double Top. For this target to be valid price must turn the Double Top Support (9.2k) in to a resistance. (In my opinion it's doing that as you can see last candles at 4H are closing bellow it)[/I]
We can see this Bear Flag/Pennant forming, the target of the Flag/Pennant is usually the same % as the Pole, since our pole is 28.7% (downwards), 28.7% downwards (if the breakout happens at $8995) will be at $6413, it's all showed on the picture.
Ichimoku confirms this Bear Flag/Pennant because our cloud is acting as resistance and the cloud is dropping. (And so is the Tenkan and Kijun)
We also have this Head and Shoulders which I don't know if it can bee 100% valid because the Left Shoulder Top and the Head Top are the "same"... The concept it's there, and it helps 'prove' this drop. We have the neckline (which was also a old support, the left white box) at 7.8k we should see some action there, on the right white box. Target is the same as the others around 6k.
Last but not least is the WORST case scenario, if we count the All time high as the end of 12345 waves we'll have our ABC... Read the Blue box to understand...
I'm leaving Magic's, D4's and Peaceful's TA on the related ideas (an other 2 of my own older ideas) You can read all the updates on those ideas, D4, Magic and Peaceful are all great traders which I follow!
This is one of many ideas I've made, you can check my other older Ideas just open my profile and see!
DISCLAIMER: This is my own personal opinion! Don't take what I say for granted, this is NOT financial advice. Don't spend what you can't afford to lose, and remember, patience is a key on this Crypto Market! Hold is life!
Trade safe and have a nice day!
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Fib retracement from 6k to 11.7k you can see we should have action at 61.8% (8.1k) which is near the white support (7.8k) and where the neckline of H&S meet. I’ve also added 2 Gann fans, booth start at the same bottom and they end in different tops (11.7k)
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Broke downwards, looking for the 61.8% fib
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Forgot to add that we are testing the downtrend line (green)
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After a confirmed close bellow the downtrend (green) you have the red lines (and fibs of course) as levels to look to, this red lines were S/R zones, you can see them here at 1D
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Downtrend so far is doing 'fine' it was already pierced twice tho. I'll say it again: "Before I get started with the 'main' chart I want to say that I only believe this scenario to be true after the Bear Flag/Pennant as a CONFIRMED break downwards. Until then this is all invalid. To further confirm this scenario a close bellow the Downtrend (green line with breaks) is also needed, that will be at around 8.5k, after that, I must say this will all (most likely) happen." (Copied from the description of the idea)
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Price is now bellow the downtrend, just noticed the Bearish Cross on MACD
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There’s a small support on this white box looks like, it should break ;)
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Targets to look like if the white box doesn't hold (most likely it won't) all the fib levels and the white horizontal lines, take special attention to the Orange lines! 8.1K to 8.2K should be a area to look to.
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We are bellow the first orange "support" ($8243) making our way to 61.8% at $8177
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Told you the Orange lines would cause trouble, a small bounce on that are happened. Doubt it will be then end ;)
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61.8% Fib touched and a fast bounce happens, let's see if we get bellow this zone once in for all
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Everything going as expected, next should be 7.8k and after that 7.4k Have a nice day!
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Quick lesson on Support/Resistance (S/R) When a support gets broken it turns into resistance, When a resistance gets broken it turns into support. You can see 8.2k was holding (support) when it broke down it turned into a resistance. When one is broken its usually tested again, thats what we saw, price should now close bellow 8.2k which was old support that is now resistance. Hope that made sense :P
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See? Our S/R 'lesson' did well :P After 8.2k turned into resistance we saw the fall to 7.8k there we had temporary support, and bounced up to the resistance (8.2k) we should continue bellow it :) Have a nice day and trade safe!
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As you can see price is having trouble being above 8.2k again which is good for our deeper targets, you see 7.8k was already reached with a bigger dip. The 7.4k and 6k are still not out of the picture, at least not until some Bullish signals.
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We can agree that 8.2k can be considered a Resistance now :) lets see how our lower levels do!
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I see bear flag at 1H
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Inside the bear flag there is a smaller bull flag that cloud send price to the downtrend and then complete the "bigger" bear flag breaking bellow the yellow line with NO breaks.
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The Pump placed price above the downtrend, but it looks like we are still inside a Bear Flag. We should see a re-test of the downtrend. My advice: Do nothing.
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Here is the Falling Wedge. Green Line=Downtrend. The fact that price is above downtrend is making me “lost”
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5Min chart I see Bullish Pennant. This pattern normally breaks upwards.
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New TA/Idea featuring the Falling wedge will be released soon.
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Forgot to share it :D here it is:
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This is an older Idea, the latest is here: Sadly it didn't really went as expected (as of now) but I left a possible scenario on the updates (scroll down when you open it)
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Here's the link (last one had a mistake it's now fixed)
Nicely done. I could agree with a 7.5k price but not with a lower one. And this is where I disagree with you. You can’t trade btc based on shapes like triangles at this point. It is not accurate due to the long sideways movement we are experiencing. I would look for patterns instead and for fib levels supports and resistances. Everything else I honestly have discarded from my btc studies for longer term. Keep it up you are doing great
angel_lobs
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@ChartsOnTime, thanks for your feedback! Lets see how we do on that 7.8k or the 8.1k You too keep the good work!
tkantoma
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Thank you for your detailed and educative analysis. Seems like it is happening just like you predicted.
angel_lobs
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@tkantoma, Hey! Thanks for your feedback. This is an older Idea, the latest is here: Sadly it didn't really went as expected (as of now) but I left a possible scenario on the updates (scroll down when you open it)
ThankUKind
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you think we see 7,4 without a decent bounce?
angel_lobs
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Hey @ThankUKind, I see 7.8k and 7.4k as supports they have bounces like the 8.2k had, but as you can see it didn't hold, the main target here is 6k but of course if one of the supports before that (white lines) holds we'll not see it...
now seriously, amazing call.
Keep up the good work.