I've extended my Elliott Wave count and made only one slight adjustment over the last week. My ABC correction wave remains intact, as you can see, but the bears decided to continue their relentless attack and created a WXY combo wave taking us down to 6128. This is a deep retrace of the SuperCycle wave II, slightly beyond .786 retrace. That is a super bullish sign for me...IF we have seen the bottom of that retrace. Like I said, I've added my next idea of the Minor Wave counts showing that we could be on Wave 3 heading up to 6800 right now. That wave is a bit of conjecture right now, but I like to layout a potential pathway early to test the EW theory and my own understanding.
For full disclosure, my predictions have not been perfect regarding specific price targets. For example, I expected the ABC correction to bring us down to 6800 levels only, the .618 fib retrace level. Instead the WXY combo wave took shape and brought us all the way down to 6128. Nevertheless, the pullback was expected. So the general idea of the bull impulse, and this retrace, followed by WAVE III of the Supercycle, that could well be started already, have been very good predictors of the market.
Still, this next wave is conjecture, and we have to look at the chart patterns and volume indicators etc to see if it will continue higher or not. I will not claim any victory on this Minor Wave 3 count in the light blue until we bust through that large black downtrend line that indicates we are still in the retrace pattern (which could end up being more than a retrace, and the start of a whole new downtrend).
Currently, we are fighting at heavy resistance around the 6500-6600 level. This was important resistance and support in the near past and is proving once again to do the same. If this breaks upward, I would expect this Wave 3 to take us to 6800-6900 red resistance box before another retest of this level. Call it a retest or a retrace. Same thing.
So have we seen the short term bottom of this thing? What do you think? If this really is a short term bottom, than looking back to June, we have just printed a Higher Low...and that is great news for the bulls.
Have a Great Day!
ps- I'll post a Daily pullback view to see that my next Impulse Wave Cycle will take us up to 9800-10000 by September!
pss- Check out my related ideas below for my original wave counts and ideas from last month!
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The WXY wave took us down even further, so I've moved my end point of that wave and the starting point of the impulse waves appropriately. If you refresh my first chart, you will see we are currently in a major battle with the black downtrend line that I mentioned originally. It's been tested several times over the last few hours and have been beaten back. Now the bears are trying to take control again and push price lower away from this breakout line. Who will win??!!
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I'm not trying to predict the end point of the Y wave anymore. It appears we went into a correction triangle for a couple days. But what I want to point out is that we have finally broken through the black trendline that rejected BTC since early Monday. If we stay about this line, than that is a pretty good sign that a new trend (short term) is starting and the next wave is beginning.