This is my long term strategy for BTC. Nobody knows what will happen, I am no guru, and I know next halving could make a hype, but for the moment, this asset makes no sense, have no mass adoption and all in all, being myself a crypto supporter, this is what my analysis looks like. Nobody knows still the fair value of bitcoin, but as a long time investor in stocks, there's not an asset that is valued 10k, this is what makes me think BTC is way overvalued.
If you noticed the triangle in doted lines, you can try yourself to put it on a monthly basis, you will see that it's cleaner :P
The strategy is simple, if BTC reaches 13k+ it becomes bullish and could skyrocket, until then, this strategy is valid.
STRATEGY:
Stop limit SHORT at 10.000. Stop market at 13k+ where i would possibly open long at around 14k. Target 5-6K 5% position.
Have fun gambling.
Regards,
BeniGo
Comment
⋅
Dear Gamblers,
If today's 1D candle closes above 200ma i will close my short, I'm expecting a hype until 9500-9600. Looking to long EOS on smaller timeframes with really low risk and tight stop loss.
I will let this trade open as the bigger picture seems to play out accordingly.
For those who short in Binance, good ride so far, we got lots of spread bonus from bulls + nice profit. Personally I shorted from 10.046 USD.
In case today's 1D candle closes below 200ma, I will keep this short open.
Wish you a safe gambling, BeniGo
Trade active
⋅
Position closed. Looking to reshort it in a while (weeks-months).
BeniGo
Trade active
⋅
Looking weak. Short started at 8700.
Trade active
⋅
Short closed at 8200. Looking to reshort again when oscilators refresh a bit. Lots of sell off today.
Trade closed: target reached
⋅
Personally i closed way above and couldn't get that much of a profit i would like, but the idea was still valid. I'm still shorting with small amount as there is no signs of getting better.
Generally speaking, I avoid fundamental analysis and only look at this as a trader. Right now, the arrow is pointing up. We went under the major 200's and have a yearly cycle low so expect more upside into this year. Generally I remain bullish. Since bitcoin is a speculative asset, adoption really doesn't matter. If people want to trade it and speculate, they will do so. BTC has a tendency to go up more than down. Considering small markets like gold are valued near $8 trillion, it really wouldn't take that much capital to push it up much higher. $1 trillion market cap would be 50k bitcoin. I wouldn't be shorting it until we had a weekly close back under the 200 SMA and EMA.
BeniGo
⋅
@rzmb44, Thank you really much. I appreciate your point of view, although I think I posed the analysis from a traders point of view as the triangle is clear on my point of view.
@BeniGo, My response was to this statement -- "this asset makes no sense, have no mass adoption" so I was just pointing out that I don't think matters to price because people are speculating on it. And I think more people are speculating on its store of value than whether its for payments. On a technical level, I'm not a pattern trader so can't provide any insight into the validity of the triangle or how to trade off of it.
BeniGo
⋅
@rzmb44, Coronavirus helped? Who knows, but the triangle is well printed for the moment, need to see month closing though.
spammer21
⋅
I agree that it's way overvalued. I also agree that we are going way down - way way down. But the reason why you think we are going down - that is, that no other asset is priced at 10K - well, that's hilarious to say the least.
BeniGo
⋅
@spammer21, I also agree with u. The main point was not that is overpriced because of that, but u are right, bad writing in here. Thanks anyway for commenting =)