I've been reading texts and messages at an increasing rate that Bitcoin is currently forming the Top/ Peak/ All Time High of the current Cycle (Bull Market). Even though this noise is not alarming as historically an increase in sell positions always goes wrong, I can't claim that I am not concerned for those who are going to miss out (again) on the rally that is ahead.
Why I don't believe that the current levels are not the top? For the simplest reasons of all. Bitcoin has never historically granted investors the time to sell that long on a market top. This is a luxury that the market just doesn't give. There has never been a month long opportunity (we've already completed 27 days since the $61800 High) to short at the top before. All Bull Cycle endings have come with an aggressive few days selling, not consolidation.
The main chart above is pretty explanatory on the 1W time-frame but for the community's own convenience, I have broken down each significant BTC top on the 1D time-frame below:
In more detail:
* The current March/ April 2021 sequence is 27 days past the High and -6% below it. The total drop within that time-frame has been -18%. Also it is above the Lower Highs trend-line. Far from what Bitcoin's Bull Cycle Tops have scored in the past and see below why and derive your own conclusions.
* During the June/ July 2019 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -29%. The total drop within that time-frame was -35%. In contrast with those below, this sequence was not an All Time but a temporary High within the greater Bull Cycle we are currently in. But for comparison purposes I've included it in my research.
* During the December 2017/ January 2018 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -28%. The total drop within that time-frame was -45%.
* During the December 2013 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -40%. The total drop within that time-frame was 64%.
* During the April 2013 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -60%. The total drop within that time-frame was 81%.
* During the June 2011 sequence, the price in 27 days was at -56%. The total drop within that time-frame was 68%.
We can of course argue that in recent years BTCUSD has become more institutionalized and such big dips become more and more unlikely to come. But still being at just -6% from the High after almost a month of trading, is far from what has ever been considered to be a Cycle Top.
But what do you think? Is this a market top or not? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
Principle of diminishing returns also means diminishing crashes
cryptobullethbtcxlm
⋅
@FollowTheCoin, i like that, that backs btc with trust and it really becomes store of value and not a speculative asset
JacintoMonteiro
⋅
Its holding 55-59k nicely so far. Long 4 weeks great for the alts. I agree top is much more agressive and short in time than current phase.
TR7z
⋅
Hy, I don't think this is the top, I looked for fractals yesterday, but couldn't find anything .. but I think that after this wave up a bigger correction is imminent ... keep it up
wehrletf
⋅
All blow off tops (for any asset) normally have a spike in volume, never happened on this local high for BTC either
You have good arguments.
Thanks!
I m one of those who advocate a drop, but i m also a trader/speculator and I know i can be wrong.
I also don t like this consolidation a a "call" for a drop, bitcoin will not stay here for all to sell.
At this point i m out of my short trade, but to be honest, I don t see it much above 60k.
Time will tell, I my opinion a short sell has more room than a buy one...
Great post!!!!
amirmehrabi
⋅
@OptimoomFX, its in a contracting abcde triangle (elliot wave). I think easily to 69K from here
Zulu_Kilo
⋅
The theory that bear cycles can never be as aggressive as Bull cycles on BTC is wrong.
When we look at month long opportunities to get out from a long position is misleading because just because we are looking at the strength of Bull cycle candles in monthly terms, that doesn’t mean that bear cycles aren’t aggressive or that they can’t be.
It’s true that Bull cycles are (or at least in BTC’s case have been more aggressive)... But in context of price, bear cycles are just aggressive as Bull cycles... Even if they are more spread out in time.
Everyone seems to be in this passive world that there is no way that we could hit an extremely aggressive sell cycle, because it has never happened before...
Based on that theory, I guess we shouldn’t be looking at potentially civilization ending tragedies if they have never potentially happened before in the physical world... And that’s a tragedy waiting to happen without as much as putting one single thought about potential.
Me? I completely disagree with your assessment.
There are are myriad of reasons to legit say we are close to a potential top for some time to come... And none of that has to do with Bitcoin’s history. It has to do with very specific scenarios that are shaping up.
One small example is the flag pattern that was made that started during the previous ATH at 20k to the 3k low... You do realize that is a measured move that when applied to where price broke out of in that flag, it brings us VERY CLOSE to the top of that measurement from the broken trend line of the flag.
I would easily say that to expect the same performance from BTC as it has always historical had is akin to saying that humanity should not worry about a civilization ending asteroid, because the last time it happened was billions of years ago, so it’s unlikely to happen now...
To make the bet that one will come crashing down soon is on fact dumb... But it’s even dumber to suggest that without having actually looked to see if an asteroid is coming, we can just sit and say that one can’t be headed our way because of a historically unlikelihood is even more dangerous and foolish.
No, I’m not saying we are at the top right here. But I fully believe we may see a top near 72k to 80k.
samsquantchtpb
⋅
@Zulu_Kilo Go ahead and short and get rekt. Ain't no top at 72 you crack head. we going 6 figures and staying.