On this study I have applied the Fibonacci bands on Bitcoin's good old logarithmic growth Channel. My focus is on the 0.764 Fib band (orange trend-line), which since February 20 has been acting as a Resistance , and how this behaved during the past three Cycles.
As you see, every time BTC broke above the 0.764 Fib, it immediately skyrocketed to the 1.0 Fib (which is the top band, illustrated in red). And before that break-out, the price always found support around the 0.618 Fib (yellow line), it never touched the 0.5 Fib (blue line) before breaking 0.764. If history repeats itself then since the February 28 bottom didn't touch the 0.5 Fib, we have high chances of breaking above the 0.764. The 1.0 Fib is now exactly at 100k.
Do you think that 0.618 will hold and push BTCUSD above the last hurdle of the 0.764 towards a new $100000 ATH? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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@Mizo_Mizo, I disagree. This analysis says we are about to enter a 2 year bear market which is nonsense.
Mizo_Mizo
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@HowToBuyBitcoin, can you explain to me how do you see us entering a 2 year bear market from here?
Pro_Trader_HTBB
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@Mizo_Mizo, this analysis says it will. Look at the charts, after the so called 0.764 fib break (0.764 is not in fibonacci sequence btw) on these charts above we enter the bear market. Scroll the chart and see for yourself. This analysis says in May we hit 100k then enter the bear phase of BTC. I don't see us entering a bear market, this trader and analysis does though.
Mizo_Mizo
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@HowToBuyBitcoin, That's possible, but let's hit 100K first and then reassess the market condition from there. One step at a time. Appreciate your comment.
bcap_
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@HowToBuyBitcoin, you're exactly right. too many traders are mistakenly comparing this run up to the previous cycles. However, they're overlooking that in those cycles we didn't have a 1T mcap and we didn't have large players like grayscale, microstrategy, etc who are buying btc at a rate that outpaces issuance.
n_hh
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@bcap_, Totally agree with you. However, also these players could pull out when the time comes (see Grayscale which pulled out of XRP after the SEC disaster) which could further tank btc price
Cyberwiz9000
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@n_hh, The SEC calling centralised altcoins securities, which they are, is of no concern to Bitcoin and is actually good for the long term health of the market. Not saying I agree with all the regulation, but Bitcoin cares a lot less about regulation than then centralised altcoins.
fdpqpghz9t
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@n_hh, any player once they get enough - pulls out
bcap_
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@n_hh, your thinking that grayscale pulls out of BTC because they did XRP just demonstrates your fundamental lack of understanding in bitcoin.