A tricky place to trade

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Following yesterday's massive big red dildo right up at double-top / trendline resistance / 200 Weekly EMA , I anticipate that price will be heading lower over the days and weeks ahead.

Price is currently resting at previous support circa 3730.

We are still just about inside the red upwards channel, but I can't see that lasting for very long. Who would possibly want to be buying after such a huge drop?? Only scalpers and bots at lower time frames IMO .

Now ideally, we want to see a retracement before going short, but we may not get one. The current price action (shown in the red box) is holding for now, but could be forming a continuation flag. If it does, then a measured move of a similar size to yesterdays candle is not out of the question.

Oh what a conundrum!

I'm going to enter a momentum short on a break of support.

I will also place a short from the previous support level at 3860 should BTC retrace as high as that. I certainly can't see it getting any higher than fib 38% (3903) and I'll tuck my SL above the fib 50% for good measure.

Target is a red trendline around 3450. I'd aim for the Weekly 200 MA, but traders might take profits before then (as they did on the 6 feb which caught me out)

Disclaimer: Without a good retrace, this is a bit of a risky play. However, I think that the risk/ reward favours a bear move. I can't foresee any significant move higher until bulls regain some confidence.

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Trade safe!



Trade active: Position opened : 3851
SL: 3977
Liquidation price: 3988
Comment: An ascending wedge formed, breaking to the upside and taking price higher. Fib 0.236 level hit and trade opened. There has been some small rejection but seems relatively strong so I anticipate further upside to Fib 0.382 level.
Comment: 10% profit taken
SL moved to BE
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