Hourly BTC chart shows an ascending channel where we have higher highs and higher lows. A breakout above trendline is a bullish signal while breakdown below will indicate signs of bearish price action. This could be a good opportunity for swing traders. The big run up on 21st was followed by a significant sell off where support of 6250 was tested. Currently we are below 50 MA and right on 100 MA (hourly), RSI is in neutral for the time being; still ascending; resistance seems to be around 6500, if we are to break it, next ceiling is at 6600. Alternatively, if price starts to break down we can expect a brief stop around 6300 possibly 6250 and then 6k.
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We touched bottom trendline around $6370 but bounced up for the time being; ascending channel is still intact as of this writing however I expect it to continue down as shorts keep piling up.
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Still inside of the ascending channel; Bitcoin is slowly making its way up despite absence in volume. If anything volume has been on the decline, which is a little counter-intuitive. Makes me suspect that this is a bull-trap. RSI is slightly above neutral on the hourly and perfectly in the middle on daily. My opinion remains bearish unless I see some significant volume come in. I think sooner rather than later we will see 6500 again, this should be a good point of support for the time being. Constructive criticism is appreciated.
"My opinion remains bearish unless I see some significant volume come in." - you nailed it. Volume is the key. Nothing to criticize. (:
bxcimu
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@EduardZimmermann, what is driving the price up in your opinion? I see some shorts have been liquidated so they aren't at ATH but longs aren't doing anything productive.
EduardZimmermann
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@bxcimu, Thanks for this answer. As i have outlined in my recent idea "The missing relation between Volume and Price), i look at (and rely on) the basic mechanisms of price-building. Demand, supply, trading volume and market capitalization. By just looking at the trading volume you can see that the basic mechanisms can't explain the situation for the last months and, even more, lately. Price building isn't obeying to basic mechanism. It's not "natural" but "artificial". When looking at the FOMO-spikes (i've adopted the term from the user SwissView because it fits perfectly) and taking the news (recent and historic) into account it's clear than one or more market makers try to attract new buyers and their capital into the market by keeping the price away from 5800 and creating an illusion of attraction.
Feel free to check SwissView's ideas for a comprehensive collection of news about the latest phenomena. He's writing in german and most (not all) news quoted are german too but google translate might help to get in an impression about the latest developments. He also made charts showing those FOMO-spikes.
EduardZimmermann
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*Thanks for this QUESTION. I need more coffee... (;
EduardZimmermann
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Short and precise. I like that style. Thanks for your effort!