COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Here we have a simple 5 wave count for BTC . Currently in Wave 3, looking for a start to Wave 4 (significant dip) soon! Possibly points where Wave 3 ends and Wave 4 begins are noted by the green horizontal lines on my chart. Feel free to comment with thoughts or questions. Updates will be posted regularly.
Comment: We had a perfect touch off of my first target and bitcoin began heading lower, just as we had expected. Now that we know where Wave 3 has ended, we can better estimate where Wave 4 (this current leg down) will end. The first target on the chart for Wave 4 is the 68% fib retracement and this is a common place for Wave 4 to end. If we get past here, note that right around $9000 is the ABSOLUTE LOWEST that Wave 4 can go if this count is correct. There are a couple exceptions to this rule, but it is rare that they occur so we will only consider them if in face we do hit below $9000 and need to re-evaluate. Until then, it is highly likely we see the end of Wave 4 before that.

Whats next?

Wave 5 will most likely be an extended wave, meaning its gonna be long and we don't want to miss the boat on this one. Once we find support and a bottom for Wave 4, I will update this idea with possible targets for Wave 5.


First target has been hit and as expected we are seeing some resistance here. However, the support does not look strong as we have not yet seen a strong bounce. Expecting to go lower at this point.
Comment: And lower we went! Updated targets have been added, these are the two red horizontal lines that are between our first target that was already hit (10,300) and our lowest possible target which is around $9,060.

These targets are approxiamtely:
1. $9800
2. $9450

Note we have already hit the first target at time of posting and are seeing a bounce. If this support doesn't hold, the $9450 target will come into play.
Comment: EDIT: 2nd Target is about $9350 not $9450.

Comment: Very possible we have begun a reversal here. Looking to retake the lost $9,800 support level and increased volume for confirmation. If we go back below $9600 my reversal theory is invalidated.

Comment: Wave 3 target of this 5-wave impulse is shown below. The range we are targeting is the RED area on the chart. Waves 4 and 5 will be determined once we see where Wave 3 ends.

Comment: Spoke too soon, here is an updated wave count. We should be seeing an extended 5th wave. Wave 5 targets will be calculated shortly. Wave 4 should end/consolidate here or may go a bit lower but should NOT go lower than $9900.

Comment: Correction, Wave 4 should NOT go lower than $10,000.
Comment: We have a failed Wave 4 as it has dipped below 10k levels, this means the count is invalidated. Idea will be updated once I can figure out what the correct count may be.
Comment: Count updated. This count should be correct. Targets for wave 3 are denoted by the horizontal green trendines.

Trade closed manually: Idea updated and refreshed in a new post.
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