How are people gonna buy bitcoins at such levels, where confirmations are taking days to confirm? How are miners going to operate in a global crisis happening sooner or later? This is impossible to continue. Transfer fees at 12$ for a 1$ transfer, a global liquidity crisis in the making, people will sell everything for cash they are used to, Bitcoin is having huge exhaustion and is not being able to pass 10k. This may be the end of Bitcoin, it was the first and best cryptocurrency and it gave us an idea about the future of money. Bitcoin will be history, we will show our kids our bitcoin transfers on the blockchain when bitcoin was at 9700$ or 14000$ and we will laugh about it. Being realistic is the best thing to be.
And no, bitcoin's lower supply will not increase it's price, miners closing and halving will not take bitcoin to 30k or 100k. If the gold supply stopped, will this increase gold prices? of course not that much. As there is too much gold in circulation! If cigarette factories stopped, there will be a shortage of cigarettes as it is consumable, it disappears and will be nonexistent. Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency to happen, but it will not be the last. this available supply is not for the hundreds of years to come, it will not increase demand or become scarce. Many cryptocurrencies will appear and take place, specially stablecoins issued by governments.
You just made the argument for fundamentals vs technical analysis, only some of your assumptions on the fundamentals may not be totally accurate. The technical analysis is at least right there for all of us to see. But thanks for posting your idea.