ronfkingswanson
Long

Rally correction halts at triple intersection, possible reversal

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
3179 27 20
UPDATE: see additional charts below in the comments. also, we finally had a little pullback that momentarily breached the upward trendline , but the horizontal support of 457 held and bounced.
UPDATE 4/19 11AM: **new high target $691** In my rush to get this sketched out yesterday before the rally started (and while most were calling for more bear ), I had only projected the next flag movement based on scale of the previous, and an old high resistance line. I'm now realizing it's likely the scale of the third flag should be larger than the second, just as the second was larger than the first. Also, when I went back and examined the dominant bear triangle, I realized no one had been drawing the triangle from the ATH             to the second peak -- which just happens to project out to an intersection with 690!
UPDATE 4/20 7PM: **high target remains, intermediate targets of $592 and $630 highlighted** the holiday weekend has proven to be uneventful, with no impulses at the usual 24-hour period markers, so sideways (yet clearly upward) motion continues. check my later charts below, which show expectations of the real china impulse happening early monday morning, likely in concert with some "good news". Such timing would also put us very close to the crucial decision point of breaching the upper bear triangle. Perfect place for a strong impulse rally or a capitulation. Also, see my latest comments and chart showing the constant positive RSI bias that convinced me we've been on a single bull trajectory this whole time since $340.
UPDATE 4/20 10PM: (morning in china). Right on cue, Huobi spikes on opening volume . It's still *really* early to draw any conclusions, but it's an optimistic sign of intentions
UPDATE 4/20 12PM: **new high target range $690-720** though I'll say it once more, if we don't breach the lower triangle, none of this applies at all. These are simply my projections for what would follow such a breach.
UPDATE 4/21 6PM: monday over in china, clearly no pump today. So we're totally sideways, and the bears are eager to drop out of this holding pattern. The final stand for any rally to occur within this timeframe (without first taking a deep leg down) is coming up at $475. If we fall from there, this projection will have to be shelved until the next attempt at the bearish triangle boundary. **One important piece of information to consider as to timing** Bitstamp has been stuck on bank holiday since last friday through today (18th-21st). That would easily explain much of the market's sideways indecision, and would also happen to coincide with the final last-chance rebound point as early tuesday morning             , because that's precisely when new cash will finally hit the exchange. If I was a whale, and wanted to get maximum effect from my initial pump, I'd want to know that a bunch of new money would quickly buy into my rally....
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Before some bank in china releases another letter saying "yay we've opened accounts again!", I'm going to publish this to show that the TA predicted first, and any news is just an excuse to follow the script. No, BTC-e does is not "leading" this market, but its price action has revealed the patterns yet to come. Since it's been following China markets up until this point, it makes sense that the TA for BTC-e contains the impulses and signals of the exchanges it might be "following".

For reference please see my last chart, "anatomy of a chinese pump rally"
anatomy of a chinese pump rally, long overdue for a correction
, and make note of where the orange text box is pointing at "end of whale phase". 457 is where the the engines got turned off, and we went straight sideways until the bulls expected the next rally to begin on schedule and expectations become self-fulfilling. This triple intersection occurred precisely where the correction down from 544, forming a large bull flag , finally met that earlier level. Time for the smart money to start buying in heavy volume again.
grahvity
2 years ago
"Man, @ronfkingswanson was right all along!"
vs.
"Dude, I told you @ronfkingswanson was totally talking out of his ass!"

Either way, we sure was.
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simple sketches of the bull flags on 4H
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ronfkingswanson PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
also note the bounce starting on the bottom of the bollinger bands
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Added more comments, visually cleaner without the fibs overlaid, though they're *very* important to understanding every reversal point. Also projecting candle patterns probably more accurate than my initial blue freehand squiggles.
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notacop
2 years ago
Great analysis, well thought out and backed. Looking at it like this makes it seem too obvious..
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ronfkingswanson PRO notacop
2 years ago
it's precisely the increasing obviousness that will fuel the rally that many (including myself) had previously thought unlikely. Also, it *wasn't* obvious to me at all until I watched that stop at the intersection. Was too perfect to ignore, got me reconsidering my previous bear strategy, and only then did I notice all the signs.
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abail
2 years ago
Do you still believe we are about to enter 600-630ish??Nice call..
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just to lock this in with a timestamp, my new highest target for the peak of the next formation is $691
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After hearing so many complaints about how the bearish triangle we've been stuck inside would prevent such a prediction, I thought I'd show how there is more than one triangle we're dealing with, and the *primary* one actually confirms my theory. Look at the last time we had a triple bull flag in series!
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expanded the cloned candles to fit the new high target of 690. also, shows interaction with the two important descending bear triangle lines
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Little more than a day later and the typical china pump timing seems to have passed without any action. Maybe it's easter :P
Anyways, we're sliding "sideways" in low volume right up this trendline, which is ascending in perfect mirror of the angle down the bullflag.
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Tradewizardz
2 years ago
How the hell can you make predictions like you have made on this chart is ridiculous absurd the imaginely lines drawn on the chart for the period of time you must be a medium
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ronfkingswanson PRO Tradewizardz
2 years ago
the light blue line projection is just copied from earlier pump periods. as I've said, its just a way of showing possible motions without sketching freehand curves. the important parts of the projections are the trendlines, reversals, and targets. the exact shape of the price action getting there is irrelevant.
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4/20 update chart. boring "sideways" weekend is actually strong indication of the trend reversal, as we've slid right up the new channel, with pretty much only one dip during a brief site outage on Huobi. But even that dip never crossed the 50% retracement or fell out of the new trend channel. if the schedule of pump periods from last week are still in play, we should see a new impulse rally in 5-7 hours. But in any case, we are on a trajectory to intersect the lower bearish triangle that will make or break this series very soon if we do nothing but slide sideways much longer.
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Tradewizardz
2 years ago
Well there a saying that if a stock, currency, bond whatever continues to hit a trend line too much then that does not necessarily show strength but weakness in the trend line being touched to much so don't be surprised if the trend line gets broken..........
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ronfkingswanson PRO Tradewizardz
2 years ago
very true, and that's ironically one of the arguments I've been making for finally breaching this long-term descending triangle we've been trapped under since January. Most bears right now are expecting that dominant ceiling to shut this rally down just like all the others for the past 4 months. But this is my case for why we could breach it now while still being in an overall downtrend (posted up above, but same link here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/3NB7qVul/)
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ronfkingswanson PRO Tradewizardz
2 years ago
further application of your warning would suggest that even if this third flag plays out, we will have strongly exhausted this trendline, and should expected a big reversal after my targets are reached.
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Tradewizardz
2 years ago
Additionally, my mistake I did not check properly to notice that your looking at a 1 hour chart which makes a big difference
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One more thing that has influenced my projections of a reversal into a continued bull trend, is this constant bias in the RSI motions seen on the left panel. Whether we're going up, down, or sideways, the trend angle is constant.
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Fib retracement projections, showing relationships between each of the three flag formations
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So I realized I was a bit sloppy sketching the full-bubble 4H chart with its multiple triangles. For BTC-e at least, drawing a more careful line across peaks actually intersects our trajectory at 720. I wondered why that might be important, when I realized that the entire zone between $690-720 was a crucial reversal and consolidation zone ever since the first slope of the November rally. There are many, many, strong pivots, failures, and breakout consolidations that have fought in this zone. Even the rally in March that appeared to simply fail at the bearish triangle ceiling was in fact up against both the triangle *and* this critical zone at that point, and necessarily fell. Thus it makes sense, **if** this final rally flag is to succeed breaching the lower triangle, it could conceivably kiss the upper bounds of that zone up to 720.
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Decided to bring back the channel analysis, starting on a clean slate, as it is so effective at framing the price action. My personal interpretations of the harmonic oscillations in these forks calls for alternating touches of the same fib channels, at least 3 times. When I saw how the peak at 544 took us to the 150% channel, and how the opposite lower 150% channel had also been touched, I realized the trajectory for a third touch of the 150% channel to finish the series took us right to the same high target zone I had projected on other charts with completely different methods. Again, falling hard out of this channel will invalidate the entire projection
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ronfkingswanson PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
note - despite the numbering and line waves, this is *not* elliot wave analysis. I don't know anything about EW. these are counts of the reflections within channels, like sound waves resonating within a tube
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magarto
2 years ago
Are you prepared to be either stoned or exonerated? ;)
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ronfkingswanson PRO magarto
2 years ago
that was the risk I took by sharing my thought process with the world :P

could have just kept it to myself, but this forces me to be dead honest, warts and all.

For me it's simply an exercise in figuring out what a post-bear-triangle world would look like. And given the uncanny pressure that has pumped us up from 340, I think it's only prudent to consider the idea these market movers might have plans to go all the way through...
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magarto ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
If it was FOREX I would say no, but being a very whale manipulated play everything can happen. If a rally is about to begin, I bet that your chart will forecast it very well. Thanks mate for sharing all your welldone job ;)
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This is the Alamo for BTC-e: $475 That level must hold through the next 6 hours, and if there's going to be a rebound and a rally attempt, it should happen at the typical china pump time, 12 noon in Beijing.
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