UPDATE 4/19 11AM: **new high target $691** In my rush to get this sketched out yesterday before the rally started (and while most were calling for more bear), I had only projected the next flag movement based on scale of the previous, and an old high resistance line. I'm now realizing it's likely the scale of the third flag should be larger than the second, just as the second was larger than the first. Also, when I went back and examined the dominant bear triangle, I realized no one had been drawing the triangle from the ATH to the second peak -- which just happens to project out to an intersection with 690!
UPDATE 4/20 7PM: **high target remains, intermediate targets of $592 and $630 highlighted** the holiday weekend has proven to be uneventful, with no impulses at the usual 24-hour period markers, so sideways (yet clearly upward) motion continues. check my later charts below, which show expectations of the real china impulse happening early monday morning, likely in concert with some "good news". Such timing would also put us very close to the crucial decision point of breaching the upper bear triangle. Perfect place for a strong impulse rally or a capitulation. Also, see my latest comments and chart showing the constant positive bias that convinced me we've been on a single bull trajectory this whole time since $340.
UPDATE 4/20 10PM: (morning in china). Right on cue, Huobi spikes on opening . It's still *really* early to draw any conclusions, but it's an optimistic sign of intentions
UPDATE 4/20 12PM: **new high target range $690-720** though I'll say it once more, if we don't breach the lower triangle, none of this applies at all. These are simply my projections for what would follow such a breach.
UPDATE 4/21 6PM: monday over in china, clearly no pump today. So we're totally sideways, and the bears are eager to drop out of this holding pattern. The final stand for any rally to occur within this timeframe (without first taking a deep leg down) is coming up at $475. If we fall from there, this projection will have to be shelved until the next attempt at the triangle boundary. **One important piece of information to consider as to timing** has been stuck on bank holiday since last friday through today (18th-21st). That would easily explain much of the market's sideways indecision, and would also happen to coincide with the final last-chance rebound point as early tuesday morning , because that's precisely when new cash will finally hit the exchange. If I was a whale, and wanted to get maximum effect from my initial pump, I'd want to know that a bunch of new money would quickly buy into my rally....
Before some bank in china releases another letter saying "yay we've opened accounts again!", I'm going to publish this to show that the TA predicted first, and any news is just an excuse to follow the script. No, BTC-e does is not "leading" this market, but its price action has revealed the patterns yet to come. Since it's been following China markets up until this point, it makes sense that the TA for BTC-e contains the impulses and signals of the exchanges it might be "following".
For reference please see my last chart, "anatomy of a chinese pump rally" , and make note of where the orange text box is pointing at "end of whale phase". 457 is where the the engines got turned off, and we went straight sideways until the bulls expected the next rally to begin on schedule and expectations become self-fulfilling. This triple intersection occurred precisely where the correction down from 544, forming a large , finally met that earlier level. Time for the smart money to start buying in heavy again.
could have just kept it to myself, but this forces me to be dead honest, warts and all.
For me it's simply an exercise in figuring out what a post-bear-triangle world would look like. And given the uncanny pressure that has pumped us up from 340, I think it's only prudent to consider the idea these market movers might have plans to go all the way through...