UPDATE: see additional charts below in the comments. also, we finally had a little pullback that momentarily breached the upward trendline, but the horizontal support of 457 held and bounced. UPDATE 4/19 11AM: **new high target $691** In my rush to get this sketched out yesterday before the rally started (and while most were calling for more bear), I had only projected the next flag movement based on scale of the previous, and an old high resistance line. I'm now realizing it's likely the scale of the third flag should be larger than the second, just as the second was larger than the first. Also, when I went back and examined the dominant bear triangle, I realized no one had been drawing the triangle from the ATH to the second peak -- which just happens to project out to an intersection with 690! UPDATE 4/20 7PM: **high target remains, intermediate targets of $592 and $630 highlighted** the holiday weekend has proven to be uneventful, with no impulses at the usual 24-hour period markers, so sideways (yet clearly upward) motion continues. check my later charts below, which show expectations of the real china impulse happening early monday morning, likely in concert with some "good news". Such timing would also put us very close to the crucial decision point of breaching the upper bear triangle. Perfect place for a strong impulse rally or a capitulation. Also, see my latest comments and chart showing the constant positive RSI bias that convinced me we've been on a single bull trajectory this whole time since $340. UPDATE 4/20 10PM: (morning in china). Right on cue, Huobi spikes on opening volume. It's still *really* early to draw any conclusions, but it's an optimistic sign of intentions UPDATE 4/20 12PM: **new high target range $690-720** though I'll say it once more, if we don't breach the lower triangle, none of this applies at all. These are simply my projections for what would follow such a breach. UPDATE 4/21 6PM: monday over in china, clearly no pump today. So we're totally sideways, and the bears are eager to drop out of this holding pattern. The final stand for any rally to occur within this timeframe (without first taking a deep leg down) is coming up at $475. If we fall from there, this projection will have to be shelved until the next attempt at the bearish triangle boundary. **One important piece of information to consider as to timing** Bitstamp has been stuck on bank holiday since last friday through today (18th-21st). That would easily explain much of the market's sideways indecision, and would also happen to coincide with the final last-chance rebound point as early tuesday morning, because that's precisely when new cash will finally hit the exchange. If I was a whale, and wanted to get maximum effect from my initial pump, I'd want to know that a bunch of new money would quickly buy into my rally.... -------------------------------- Before some bank in china releases another letter saying "yay we've opened accounts again!", I'm going to publish this to show that the TA predicted first, and any news is just an excuse to follow the script. No, BTC-e does is not "leading" this market, but its price action has revealed the patterns yet to come. Since it's been following China markets up until this point, it makes sense that the TA for BTC-e contains the impulses and signals of the exchanges it might be "following".
For reference please see my last chart, "anatomy of a chinese pump rally" tradingview.com/v/akskTFso/, and make note of where the orange text box is pointing at "end of whale phase". 457 is where the the engines got turned off, and we went straight sideways until the bulls expected the next rally to begin on schedule and expectations become self-fulfilling. This triple intersection occurred precisely where the correction down from 544, forming a large bull flag, finally met that earlier level. Time for the smart money to start buying in heavy volume again.
This is the Alamo for BTC-e: $475 That level must hold through the next 6 hours, and if there's going to be a rebound and a rally attempt, it should happen at the typical china pump time, 12 noon in Beijing.
magarto
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Are you prepared to be either stoned or exonerated? ;)
ronfkingswanson
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that was the risk I took by sharing my thought process with the world :P
could have just kept it to myself, but this forces me to be dead honest, warts and all.
For me it's simply an exercise in figuring out what a post-bear-triangle world would look like. And given the uncanny pressure that has pumped us up from 340, I think it's only prudent to consider the idea these market movers might have plans to go all the way through...
magarto
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If it was FOREX I would say no, but being a very whale manipulated play everything can happen. If a rally is about to begin, I bet that your chart will forecast it very well. Thanks mate for sharing all your welldone job ;)
ronfkingswanson
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Decided to bring back the channel analysis, starting on a clean slate, as it is so effective at framing the price action. My personal interpretations of the harmonic oscillations in these forks calls for alternating touches of the same fib channels, at least 3 times. When I saw how the peak at 544 took us to the 150% channel, and how the opposite lower 150% channel had also been touched, I realized the trajectory for a third touch of the 150% channel to finish the series took us right to the same high target zone I had projected on other charts with completely different methods. Again, falling hard out of this channel will invalidate the entire projection
ronfkingswanson
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note - despite the numbering and line waves, this is *not* elliot wave analysis. I don't know anything about EW. these are counts of the reflections within channels, like sound waves resonating within a tube
ronfkingswanson
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So I realized I was a bit sloppy sketching the full-bubble 4H chart with its multiple triangles. For BTC-e at least, drawing a more careful line across peaks actually intersects our trajectory at 720. I wondered why that might be important, when I realized that the entire zone between $690-720 was a crucial reversal and consolidation zone ever since the first slope of the November rally. There are many, many, strong pivots, failures, and breakout consolidations that have fought in this zone. Even the rally in March that appeared to simply fail at the bearish triangle ceiling was in fact up against both the triangle *and* this critical zone at that point, and necessarily fell. Thus it makes sense, **if** this final rally flag is to succeed breaching the lower triangle, it could conceivably kiss the upper bounds of that zone up to 720.
ronfkingswanson
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Fib retracement projections, showing relationships between each of the three flag formations
ronfkingswanson
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One more thing that has influenced my projections of a reversal into a continued bull trend, is this constant bias in the RSI motions seen on the left panel. Whether we're going up, down, or sideways, the trend angle is constant.