Background: Well it has been a heck of a week for Bitcoin. By now many investors are questioning when and if Bitcoin will regain bullish momentum anytime soon. Conspiracy theories aside, we did enter a healthy correction posting an almost 30% drop from our ATH and retracing to the 38% on the fib retracement.
Unfortunately the corrective pattern was far from healthy, led by a flash dump that liquidated billions of trade positions in an hour; and after what felt like days of fud that followed, the final straw today was news of the US possibly taxing capital gains at rates in the 40% range (for incomes over 1 million).
Today: Following the news about possibly increased capital gains tax, most markets saw a drop. Its timing unfortunately came as Bitcoin was trying to rally from its flash dump and subsquent corrective pattern. This led to further drops, with a wick on the daily down at 47.5k that was quickly bought up.
Forecast: To be honest its a tough place to be. I think the average bear expects a drop to as low as 42k, with more moderate targets around 45k. Bulls at this point are fairly demoralized and probably happy to hold over 50k, but targeting 52k next. Personally I find fundamental analysis and market data to be rather bullish still, so I think 48k is the lowest practical price, but 50-51, appears to provide healthy support currently so far and that aligns well with our price volume data.
My guesstimate at this point, we entered a corrective pattern mid March, that continues on as a complex correction into early May. A lot of interesting external factors seriously affected the Bitcoin price along the way, this The pattern is still painting so bounds of this correction are speculative at best right now, but I see us ranging across a flat correction into May.
Speculating based on volume, we might see a decisive move away from the correction by 19 May. The best case scenario is we range within the 50-55k range, working within different value areas until breakout. This will give alts another healthy session to grow (3k ETH anyone?).
Unfortunately the corrective pattern was far from healthy, led by a flash dump that liquidated billions of trade positions in an hour; and after what felt like days of fud that followed, the final straw today was news of the US possibly taxing capital gains at rates in the 40% range (for incomes over 1 million).
Today: Following the news about possibly increased capital gains tax, most markets saw a drop. Its timing unfortunately came as Bitcoin was trying to rally from its flash dump and subsquent corrective pattern. This led to further drops, with a wick on the daily down at 47.5k that was quickly bought up.
Forecast: To be honest its a tough place to be. I think the average bear expects a drop to as low as 42k, with more moderate targets around 45k. Bulls at this point are fairly demoralized and probably happy to hold over 50k, but targeting 52k next. Personally I find fundamental analysis and market data to be rather bullish still, so I think 48k is the lowest practical price, but 50-51, appears to provide healthy support currently so far and that aligns well with our price volume data.
My guesstimate at this point, we entered a corrective pattern mid March, that continues on as a complex correction into early May. A lot of interesting external factors seriously affected the Bitcoin price along the way, this The pattern is still painting so bounds of this correction are speculative at best right now, but I see us ranging across a flat correction into May.
Speculating based on volume, we might see a decisive move away from the correction by 19 May. The best case scenario is we range within the 50-55k range, working within different value areas until breakout. This will give alts another healthy session to grow (3k ETH anyone?).