............It’s starting to look like we can make another drop. Could be a quick and maybe small shake out to maybe 3920/3890. Alts are still weak, have been all day. Alts need to move up with a sideways bitcoin , not dropping like today...............
Anyway, alts look better again today. The leading alt lately, ETH, still looks , so that worries me a bit. For the rest it looks good.
OI for Bitcoin is very high now, around 415 mil, has not been this high for a while now. So a big move is probably about to happen.
We are still below the 4100, so the danger of a lower high is still very dangerous. We really need to break that level and preferably touch the 4200ish at least once as well. On the left we can see a , there we can see there is room for a small drop to make a higher low inside the flag before going up. Normally we should not touch the low of yesterday again.
On the right we can see, there is room for a very small drop, but we want to see bulls step in there. This would confirm the high OI is instead of . So it will probably be a few important hours.
I will post a new analysis later today
Now there is a chance a bigger bull flag is in play now, the one we can see on the left. So far it's following the blue line, but it is important that we see that smaller green zone hold, to form a higher low. If that plays out, this all is probably just noise and we will see the market move up again during the day and we should see a break up within 24 hours.
If this support breaks, we could be testing the 3820/60 range (Bitstamp).
OI was quite high earlier today, i was actually even surprised to see it when i got back home yesterday. So maybe it was all just a shake out.
I think XRP can be a very good clue now, to what the market will do this week. I think we need to watch the range of the past 48H. A break down will prob mean the market will test lows again, a break up might mean we will start a new rally
- The break up was to soon, some people still need to get in at current prices
- The bears are at it again and just dump the price and the current movement is just re distribution.
I can't say which one it is at the moment. This sideways price action is difficult to judge. Alts show mixed signals, with ETH being bearish, others being weak but several other are bullish. So nothing clear from that side.
OI on Mex is at 405mil, which is a good healthy level for this price zone. But we had the ingredients yesterday as well to move up, but it got dumped.
The price keeps getting pushed up when we enter the 3980/3950 zone. Just too many mixed signals at the moment. I am just disappointed, that after the 2 weeks Holidays, we would be taking a direction, below 3700/3600 or above 4000/4200. Now it looked like the last one was chosen with that break up. But still here we are.
The bull have on important thing in favor, that is the higher lows. That trend line on the seems to be important already, above that line it's simple, chances up are higher. 3900/3880 is still a normal healthy correction. Below that last green support zone, things will probably change completely. I might even step away from my big picture ABC correction to the 5K's. Of course depends on how things go and the volumes.
I got nothing real to say here now, wish i had but i don't :(
Then who knows.
Imho the best option is playing the breakout od the yellow triangle.
Volatility is about to come, use some patience till then.
As long as Bitcoin stays above the 3950, the chances are there, below 3800/3850, the chances for a failure increase a lot.