botje11

Bitcoin update, Bull flag and high OI

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I was away yesterday and i thought i posted an update here as well. I did it even before i posted it in my channel, but seems something might went wrong.

............It’s starting to look like we can make another drop . Could be a quick and maybe small shake out to maybe 3920/3890. Alts are still weak, have been all day. Alts need to move up with a sideways bitcoin , not dropping like today...............

Anyway, alts look better again today. The leading alt lately, ETH, still looks bearish , so that worries me a bit. For the rest it looks good.
OI for Bitcoin is very high now, around 415 mil, has not been this high for a while now. So a big move is probably about to happen.

We are still below the 4100, so the danger of a lower high is still very dangerous. We really need to break that level and preferably touch the 4200ish at least once as well. On the left we can see a bull flag , there we can see there is room for a small drop to make a higher low inside the flag before going up. Normally we should not touch the low of yesterday again.
On the right we can see, there is room for a very small drop , but we want to see bulls step in there. This would confirm the high OI is bullish instead of bearish . So it will probably be a few important hours.

I will post a new analysis later today


Previous analysis:
Comment: What a day again, with some fake moves and Bart moves. This market is just horrible when volumes are low. Anyway, the very bullish version on the right looked like it would play out with the break up today, but that Bart move with high volume dump prevented it.
Now there is a chance a bigger bull flag is in play now, the one we can see on the left. So far it's following the blue line, but it is important that we see that smaller green zone hold, to form a higher low. If that plays out, this all is probably just noise and we will see the market move up again during the day and we should see a break up within 24 hours.

If this support breaks, we could be testing the 3820/60 range (Bitstamp).

OI was quite high earlier today, i was actually even surprised to see it when i got back home yesterday. So maybe it was all just a shake out.

I think XRP can be a very good clue now, to what the market will do this week. I think we need to watch the range of the past 48H. A break down will prob mean the market will test lows again, a break up might mean we will start a new rally


Comment: Things looked good yesterday, but out of nowhere we got a big volume dump after the break of the high. This shows us that;

- The break up was to soon, some people still need to get in at current prices
- The bears are at it again and just dump the price and the current movement is just re distribution.

I can't say which one it is at the moment. This sideways price action is difficult to judge. Alts show mixed signals, with ETH being bearish, others being weak but several other are bullish. So nothing clear from that side.

OI on Mex is at 405mil, which is a good healthy level for this price zone. But we had the ingredients yesterday as well to move up, but it got dumped.

The price keeps getting pushed up when we enter the 3980/3950 zone. Just too many mixed signals at the moment. I am just disappointed, that after the 2 weeks Holidays, we would be taking a direction, below 3700/3600 or above 4000/4200. Now it looked like the last one was chosen with that break up. But still here we are.

The bull have on important thing in favor, that is the higher lows. That trend line on the seems to be important already, above that line it's simple, chances up are higher. 3900/3880 is still a normal healthy correction. Below that last green support zone, things will probably change completely. I might even step away from my big picture ABC correction to the 5K's. Of course depends on how things go and the volumes.

I got nothing real to say here now, wish i had but i don't :(

Comment: New Litecoin analysis:

Comment: New ETH analysis:

Comment: Just so boring, more that 3 days of this crap. But it looks like it might be coming to an end soon, cause it looks like a triangle now. Probably get our answer soon for the inverse H&S, if it will fail or succeed

Comment: Posted a new Bitcoin analysis:

Comment: New XRP analysis:

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well, It's happen. 13-14 will climb back.
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BTCUSD H4 Correction up. Checkout the idea detail's and update's for the complete picture.
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Diamond top or half staff ?
We'll see.

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@ft-73, bias is ( albeit slightly ) to the downside and that rising wedge is not at target yet.
Then who knows.

Imho the best option is playing the breakout od the yellow triangle.
Volatility is about to come, use some patience till then.
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A lot of people think we're in an inverse Head and Shoulder formation and nearing an upside breakout. But what if this is not inverse head and shoulder but instead a bearish pennant formation. If you look at the chart since November 13th until today it looks like a bearish pennant to me. It looks BTC is coming to a point where it will end that recent higher lows and lower highs triangle and make a decision. But what you think of the bearish pennant?
+1 Reply
botje11 lamboluvr
@lamboluvr, It's very simple. Each triangle can be seen as an H&S or as a wedge. Depends on what you want to see as well. Volume plays a very important part in this. Conviction of certain moves as well. Of course, the longer this takes, the smaller the chances for a H&S
+4 Reply
lamboluvr botje11
@botje11, I see what could be the inverse H&S but I am thinking BTC is on its last legs of its bearish pennant formation, expecting an initial pullback to the support and then back to near 3k to form a double bottom scenario. RSI is also having a hard time breaking above 58 since July so the more the price consolidates below the said level, the higher the bearish bias. Plus the declining volume also looks like a bearish pennant. However, to support your inverse H&S declining volume also applies before a bullish breakhouse. But I just think everyone expecting the Inverse H&S are going to be unpleasently surprised. Ofcourse I may be wrong.
+1 Reply
botje11 lamboluvr
@lamboluvr, I understand what your saying and i agree (except for the RSI, but that is because i don't look at them). There are a lot of people expecting it, usually not a good sign. Thing is, the H&S is just about 1000 points, not like it's turning around the whole trend. So it's not like the inverse H&S at 11.700 earlier this year with a target close to the ATH again.
As long as Bitcoin stays above the 3950, the chances are there, below 3800/3850, the chances for a failure increase a lot.
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lamboluvr botje11
@botje11, You're welcome!
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