BTC 4h Chart: I see a Gartley Bullish formation on the 4h chart on BTC. this is a short term development and does not change my overall stance on BTC. I am wrong ont his one if point X gives in. As long as the lows hold, this is a gartley bullish set up. First target will be $7323 whereas the second one will be point A at $7778.
Not sure where you learned your harmonics, but for Gartley pattern to be valid, B point must retrace 61.8% of XA.
This is more likely to be a bat pattern.
Monis
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@Taiwan_Bear, you have a point there. if you put this on coinbase you will see it is pretty close to 61.8% of XA. I was not able to put it on coinbase's price feed for technical reasons.
Monis
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@Taiwan_Bear, there you go. if you only trade PERFECT Gartleys.. you can walk away from this one
Taiwan_Bear
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@Monis, You are saying 0.588 is close to 0.618? Are you serious?
Anyway, the way you measure D is also incorrect.
Monis
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@Taiwan_Bear, have you ever looked at bitcoin ? its an extremely volatile asset... you will NEVER get a perfect butterfly or a perfect Gartley. and yes I am quite serious.
Taiwan_Bear
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@Monis, Of course you can. If B is not >= 0.618XA, it's not a Gartley. That's a simple fact.
There are different ways to measure D point, but certainly not B point.
Monis
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@Taiwan_Bear, I guess you can choose to trade only perfect patterns. Keep in mind though that you will keep missing out. Plus, the perfect harmonic patterns will always be the ones that will drag more attention and will always get stopped out. And yes, I see the bat formed in April and we have hit its target at 10k. Guess what, that was not a perfect one either. AC was above 88.6 but yet it worked perfectly, and that is also a simple fact.
Taiwan_Bear
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@Monis, I think you are confused with the PERFECT pattern and the RULES.
For a bat pattern, you enter at the 0.886XA and set SL below X. So long as D point doesn't get below X, it's still valid.
But for a Gartley pattern, the most basic rule is B point cannot be less than 0.618XA. And there is no variation on that.
I will stop the conversation here.
Monis
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@Taiwan_Bear, " For a bat pattern, you enter at the 0.886XA and set SL below X. So long as D point doesn't get below X, it's still valid. " seriously now ?
I can't send a link of the book written by the Scott Carney. But here are what the book says:
"Gartley Pattern Elements:
Precise 61.8% B point retracement of XA leg.
BC projection must not exceed 1.618.
Equivalent AB=CD pattern is most common.
0.786 XA retracement.
C point within range of 0.382-0.886 retracement.
Bat Pattern Elements:
B point at a less than a 0.618 retracement of XA, preferably a distinct 50% or 38.2% retracement.
BC projection must be at least 1.618.
AB=CD pattern is usually extended.
0.886 XA retracement.
C point with range between 0.382 and 0.886.
One example that will be reviewed later in this book is the difference between a Bat pattern and an ideal Gartley pattern. Many people mistakenly believe that these are the same pattern. They simply are not. A Bat pattern is an entirely different combination of Fibonacci alignments than the ideal Gartley. In fact, I have seen emails and charting postings on the Internet over the past few years that frequently identify potential Gartley patterns, when the alignment clearly possesses a Bat structure. It is an example of strict application of different alignments like this that sets Harmonic Trading techniques apart from all other Fibonacci methods"
This is more likely to be a bat pattern.