Current Situation: In late April Bitcoin basically repeated the initial February corrective pattern- with an identical depth of correction, angle trend and very similar fractal- now we will see if it continues copying that pattern with March's second correction. If we do, we'll have a brief bull trap here over the next 24-48 hours, or at least some slightly positive ranging of price, before another strong correction hits.
Interesting Observation: I copied the March price drop to our current May chart and that depth of correction lands almost perfectly on the 20/21W SMA/EMA which hasn't been retested since September. A strong retest/bounce from there would bode well for Bitcoin and lead to it emerging healthier and more bullish than it is now, increasing our odds of climbing past 60k. In my opinion we need to retest that bottom support to enter the second phase of the bull cycle.
This is invalidated if Bitcoin were to close under the 20/21W SMA/EMA and I would consider that a potential confirmation of a bear cycle.
That said, I'm overall very bullish on Bitcoin and Crypto this year. The massive industry investment, maturing defi ecosystem and NFT market all suggest broader adoption- Fundamental Analysis is extremely bullish. But no matter how bullish the long term prospects are, we have to contend with basic psychology and nothing can go straight up forever; and of course the MMs want to accumulate more so we are along for that ride.
Note: If I had a recommendation at this stage- consider investing in some DEFI. Stuff like ETH, MKR, COMP, AAVE, or even some DEX like CAKE or UNI. We are seeing more growth recently in the DEFI market than we saw last year in the supposed "DEFI Summer."
A quick scan of other metrics:
Interesting Observation: I copied the March price drop to our current May chart and that depth of correction lands almost perfectly on the 20/21W SMA/EMA which hasn't been retested since September. A strong retest/bounce from there would bode well for Bitcoin and lead to it emerging healthier and more bullish than it is now, increasing our odds of climbing past 60k. In my opinion we need to retest that bottom support to enter the second phase of the bull cycle.
This is invalidated if Bitcoin were to close under the 20/21W SMA/EMA and I would consider that a potential confirmation of a bear cycle.
That said, I'm overall very bullish on Bitcoin and Crypto this year. The massive industry investment, maturing defi ecosystem and NFT market all suggest broader adoption- Fundamental Analysis is extremely bullish. But no matter how bullish the long term prospects are, we have to contend with basic psychology and nothing can go straight up forever; and of course the MMs want to accumulate more so we are along for that ride.
Note: If I had a recommendation at this stage- consider investing in some DEFI. Stuff like ETH, MKR, COMP, AAVE, or even some DEX like CAKE or UNI. We are seeing more growth recently in the DEFI market than we saw last year in the supposed "DEFI Summer."
A quick scan of other metrics:
- Neutral: Miners are still hodling. This is normally bearish but they started hodling while prices continued rising almost 20k more.
- Bearish: Whales are growing increasingly active but not to a level that indicates cycle top, in my opinion its more indicative of short term manipulation