czarly
Long

Correction pattern completed?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
316 0 6
I was wrapping my head around how many bounces are allowed in a bull flag as it was entirely possible that we are still in a bull market even with the 65% correction from all time high. But the triangle did not really fit since the lines are not respected by the price. But there are more complex correction patterns in the Elliot Wave theory that could possibly fit. Especially since the last leg down (wave 5 of C in the chart) shows 5 parts and 5k is the big target that we tested lots of times last year we can either believe in the future of crypto or capitulate here and test the support around $600 before a year long bear market.

I counted the waves trough and it sums up. We can label a flat 3-3-5 ABC correction where wave B is a small 3-3-5 flat and wave C has 5 parts when you count wave 4 as a slightly irregular triangle. The correction is usually between 50% and 62% of the upward move. Depending on where we put the start of the move the current price is in between these two levels.

The RSI is indicating oversold conditions and has not been that low on the daily for the whole bull run since early 2015. There is not as much fear in the market as I wish for the correction to be called complete but there is some blood on the streets and some uncertainty and doubt (Tether?) that can find resolution in the short term. I'm temporarily converting from bear to bull from here and keep watching the market action closely.
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