I have updated the values of the bitcoin production cost indicator for the Chinese province of Sichuan (35% of hashrate share) where the cost of electric current does not exceed 1 cent per kilowatt hour. For a miner located in this Chinese province the cost to produce a whole bitcoin does not exceed 4000 dollars, this price falls within the support area of my kama bands on the monthly chart. I believe that if this fall there will be a second wave of the virus combined with a new lockdown there could be panic in the markets again. Personally, I'm going to increase my bullish position by buying in the $2,500 / $4,000 price range.
Personally i think that a hyphotetical "second wave" should not be worse than the first one.
At least i think any markets are already pricing that, to some extents, so i wouldn't expect a second "black swan".
Markets wave been warned.
Moreover we have US elections in november, i guess it may act as a financially stabilizing factor ...
Anyway, back in march Bitcoin briefly ( less than 1 week ) crashed under the rising weekly MA200, which worked as support for at least 5 years now.
Back then it was around the 5500$ whereas now runs at about 6500$.
I find somewhat unlikely we'll see 2500/4000 $ in fall, as it would mean an even stronger violation of that long term support.
It would also be an unprecedented event, within a 6 months timespan after a halving.
Obviously anything can actually happen.
Yet i would be seriously concerned in case of such a strong correction, because it would potentially imply a fundamental trend change.
VishalGupta35
⋅
Bitcoin will never close below 8.8k
DanielLt
⋅
Going to 2500/4000 is not bullish is a disaster. If BTC doesnt excel in a crisis scenario (which favor everything that is not FIAT based), a store of value similar to gold than the entire rethoric falls apart.
DanielLt
⋅
@DanielLt, if that happens ill have to review my opinion about this market... to a pump and dump scheme with a good story. anyway thanks for your view.
UnknownUnicorn30297
⋅
@DanielLt, I tend to agree with you, we must always adapt to new market information and never be biased all the time!
DanielLt
⋅
@enky.nakamura, I think it will not go down, but be prepared for the possibility of having the BTC hovering around 9k until the end of the year and beyond.
There's a lot of profit being made in the Alts...crazy profit so it's quite reasonable to except that BTC is being kept stable to allow alts to thrive. This market is all about manipulation and profit strategies, that's the reality. For now the alt madness is back.
At least i think any markets are already pricing that, to some extents, so i wouldn't expect a second "black swan".
Markets wave been warned.
Moreover we have US elections in november, i guess it may act as a financially stabilizing factor ...
Anyway, back in march Bitcoin briefly ( less than 1 week ) crashed under the rising weekly MA200, which worked as support for at least 5 years now.
Back then it was around the 5500$ whereas now runs at about 6500$.
I find somewhat unlikely we'll see 2500/4000 $ in fall, as it would mean an even stronger violation of that long term support.
It would also be an unprecedented event, within a 6 months timespan after a halving.
Obviously anything can actually happen.
Yet i would be seriously concerned in case of such a strong correction, because it would potentially imply a fundamental trend change.