MrRenev

Bitcoin: The bear market is back!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin fast moving average 50MA has just crossed below the slow moving average 200MA.
This is known as a death cross, and according to Bitcoin investors it is of the utmost importance.

Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin rallied to $10,000. Once again, Bitcoin did exactly what I said it would, and once again, bulls are sending messages to me telling me how I got burned and what an idiot I am.
Shows you how stupid they are. It's funny, but also a little sad.
I am going to look at what BTC did in previous death crosses but first I want to look at some of the trades I took in the past.

1) Other assets dip rallies

GBPNZD

GBPJPY

GBPAUD

EURSEK

GBPJPY

BTCUSD

That shadow, it reminds me of gold in 2016:

So anyway, it can go both ways. But the resistance was the area to take profit at.
What I normally do is use a trailing stop loss. I would let it retrace about 25%, and if it is trending up with the 4 hour EMAs close, I would use them.
BTC consolidated so long down there and then went up suddenly, so the EMAs (20,50) are too far to use.
I just closed here, because of my strong bias against Bitcoin . And also my Bitmex account is so small I don't really care.


2) Price behavior in general

If Bitcoin price starts behaving like Forex & Gold that would be awesome. EU idiotic regulators might even let me use decent leverage so I can "make my comeback" and trade it on my main accounts. Probably won't happen xd

Merchants are now prefering Tether to Bitcoin XD
With non-crypto fiat currencies, businesses have what is known as the "foreign exchange risk".
To eliminate that risk, they trade on the gigantic Foreign Exchange market (it is so enormous because we live in an age where massive amounts of goods get imported and exported). Just like the Futures market, this is made possible because a large amount of speculators are happy to take the "commercials"/hedgers risk to try and make a profit.
But with Bitcoin , companies cannot do that because it is too volatile for them, in terms of percent, they do have the CME futures that are trustworthy but not really since they gap so much. Not sure how that works, maybe they don't care about gaps. But if the thing goes up 150% in 2 days and they get margin called, asked to pour more money into their cme account... What is the point. They don't want to bother with market fluctuation that's not their job, this is what they want to get rid of.

I am not going to discuss it entirely in this post, but I bet Bitcoin was the most adopted or adoption by merchants went up the fastest when the price was the less volatile, back in 2015 around that period.

If Bitcoin finds an area when it can calm down, merchants might adopt it, but they will always fear a sudden 500% swing...

Bitcoin success killed it. It is no more than a greater fool game at the moment. The more it goes up, the less value it has, funny.


3) Previous Bitcoin death cross


We can see that since Tether, the price of Bitcoin has been spiking up with death crosses that did not happen just after a small golden cross without much follow up. Must be a coincidence.


4) High Timeframe chart




5) Warning

Alot of eager buyers & bagholders. And Tether.
It's too easy... it's ridiculous... How can this be a thing...

Price first pumps on empty books and no volume , then the vast majority get excited and buy.

Buuut. It keeps happening.
I guess it will happen again at 3500, 1800, 1000.
Something tells me "if we drop below 3500 the price will go straight past 1800" but no I think it will rally again.
"When every one knows about a strategy it stops working as every one abuses it".
Not in crypto. There are legions of eager buyers, very eager to buy after a pump and then not sell.
Feels like taking candy from a child, well, a "special" child.
If the child was not so obnoxious I would even feel guilty about it. IF.
Only downside is it can be month before the pump. Capital is frozen until then. Maybe that's why it doesn't get abused into oblivion. But there are so many crypto traders. Maybe they're just really bad and anyone decent is just in FX stocks or futures .

Let's hope it keeps going down so we can scam gullibulls the next times the "bull market is back".
If price keeps going up careful about buying pullbacks. These bulls want to "get in at the bottom".

Can bulls suddenly wake up and realize they are being scammed? No, they can't, too brainwashed. Incredible. No risk.
(This is not advice bla bla there is risk).

There are noobish "experts" that keep buying on the way down and actually make money when it bounces.
If it ever doesn't go up then they lose huge at once.
This HAS to be how it ends. They can't keep getting free no risk money. We HAVE to run out of suckers eventually.
Only take 1 loser to wipe them out.

I think it's best to stick to using stops for when buyers finally stop showing up.
The free money well has to have a bottom.
Even if buyers don't stop throwing money in the fire, eventually those profiting from it will be so big they kill the market.
"Ye I'll just keep trading pumps until I'm big then stop" <=== Never ended well.

Be careful with the free money well, I like Bitmex because the most you can lose is your whole account.

I don't know how I am doing it, but I have found it really easy to see pumps coming right before they happen, a few hours or minutes.
If my subconscious mind could let me know what information it is using to sense those... Stupid brain. Keeping secrets from me? That's crazy.
Oct 26
Trade active: Bull/Bear ratio now at all time high. :)
I can't not short this. I'll short giant green candles till the end of time.
Next buy somewhere in the 3500-5500 are we'll see when we get there.
If it goes higher next buy on a pullback...
Oct 26
Comment: ALL TIME LOW!
I am going to be the last bear alive it's wonderful XD


Going to take much more Tether than that to change the death cross.
Oct 26
Comment: Everytime...

Oct 27
Comment: If the MAs cross in a few days then you know what that means ;)
The bull market is back!


Price is still bearish long term. Bitcoin great 2010-2019 uptrend has been lost and we rejected it. Price might retest it with divergence then fawl.

Just logical to have a downtrend stance.

Oudenophobia, that's the fear of nothing & zero.
What to call the fear of bitcoin going to zero?
Oudenobtcphobia, the fear of Bitcoin being worth zero.

25 November.
1 month. That's how long you have left until then.
Actually you have even less than that.
Oct 28
Comment: Falling volume, falling momentum.

If you bought, with the intention to hold, at the very bottom nearly 1 year ago and held until now, you would have made 200%.
Or in other words risked everything to make 2.45% a week, or 0.35% a day.
That's the absolute maximum.
Amazing! Gee this explains why BTC bulls main argument is "you are mad you missed out". Who would not dream of those wonderful odds and gigantic returns?


A decent strategy with a PF of 2, get 3 trades a week risk 3% on each to make 6%, win 50%, has those stats after 47 weeks:
(1.06^70)*(0.97^70) = 7. +600%.
Odds of losing more than 80% of these 140 trades: Method 1. exact binomial calculation (112 or more out of 140) ==> <0.000000000001
(1.06^28)*(0.97^112) = 0.17 (Down 83%)
The odds of losing every thing are basically impossible.

Less risk, more returns. Institutions mostly do market making but other than that they have guarenteed returns on hft statistical arbitrage, and those that do speculating need fundamentals, and either go for great strategies, or have a hedged portfolio of strong stocks or commodities with value and short other bad ones, and they know the risk and all.

Gee I wonder why they don't jump into some ponzi that gets manipulated all the time and could drop to zero instantly with no warning? If they did they could get worse returns with more risk, isn't that attractive!

Mathematics sure don't prove Bitcoin is going to 2 million, but they prove that the BTC baghodler giving advice to people that actually know what they are doing, are complete trash.

They are unprofitable traders. The best they can achieve is garbage.
Even if they had a strategy with 2 setups a week and a PF of 1.2 it would be better than this Bitcoin holding. Noobs.
Oct 31
Comment: I wish reward to risk wasn't asymetrical between selling and buying.

Bears are capitulating once again (lol)


With the latest (small) green candle.





Let's see who is right? Hundreds of historical examples, Warren Buffet, Jamie Dimon, economists, mathematicians, OR rappers cnbc and the guy down the street.
Nov 03
Comment: How dare you ignore this fractal?
Right here right now is where we draw the line.



I really don't have the patience to trade Bitcoin.
But the high potential areas are obvious.
Nov 08
Comment: I hope this soon goes to zero and we can put all of this behind us.


1 or 2 imminent. Laughs in rich old man voice.

Every one knows Tether has been saving Bitcoin.
Are they going to save it again with all eyes on them?

I told buyers that even if they absolutely wanted to buy Bitcoin they was no hurry.
But anyone that wants to buy.. it's because they got excited by the price going up so it is going to be impossible to wait and they all end up excited in 2019 and FOMO'd in.

Maybe the bottom will be a vshape reversal.

As I said, you don't have to go big in. You can buy a bit at 3000 a bit at 2000 etc.

And in a few months the CME is offering options.
Will be able to catch all the upside with no risk...
Nov 10
Comment: Biggest joke of our lifetime.


It's actually insane. And hilarous. BaggyCoin.
Literal baggycoin.

Ok it HAS to go somewhere VERY SOON.
It can't keep fractalling smaller and smaller infinitely.
Nov 10
Comment: It's not going to...? It wouldn't dare?! LOL.

Nov 13
Comment: It's looking like it's about to drop. I should follow my instinct it has always been right until now.


Usually I can smell it's about to move 1-2 days before it does.
I knew it would explode up the 1rst April and it did the 2.
I knew it would explode down around the 22 september (a day after bakkt).




The area to buy next I think is somewhere between 3000 and 6000
Nov 15
Comment: We are in the final days... A new idea for Bitcoin as we approach the inevitable fall.
Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. We will fight them on the beaches... ~ Winston Churchill
Soon we find out which of us is right.

Reply
Its crazy you spend so much time being wrong. Like you have all these charts and all these writings...but nothing you say ever works out. How do you not realize this as a waste of time?
Reply
MrRenev MrMarketMaker
@MrMarketMaker, How can you disagree with every expert? How can you disagree with the facts? You believe in science and experts when you get sick and need medical treatment but not when it says Bitcoin is going down?

Reply
“I knew it would explode up the 1rst April and it did the 2.” - Nope. You made a very clearly sarcastic post about Bitcoin exploding with plenty of quotes that “Bear market is over” to make it abundantly clear that Bitcoin death is imminent. Go read your post again.

That’s like dishonesty exponential - Trying to spin a failed sarcasm as truth.

“I knew it would explode down around the 22 september (a day after bakkt).“ - of course you knew, I told you in your thread FOUR days before. Go read your post again.

Now, I’m looking forward to the next chapter. Let’s go.
Reply
In a year and a half I'm going to enjoy coming back to this thread and dunking on your bear ass.
+1 Reply
MrRenev CryptoParadyme
@CryptoParadyme, Does this mean that you agree with me the bear market will last around 2 years? (Started June 2019)
Reply
@MrRenev, Not quite.

I think this is going to be re-accumulation. A series of pumps and dumps. Up and down.

But the overall trend is going to start moving up. Mid 2020 I think is when Bitcoin will rise.

I'm in no dis-illusion that bitcoin is bearish in the mid term. But you and I disagree about the long term.
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“ Biggest joke of our lifetime. ”

When zero? Dude, October 26 is long passed and gone.

Looking forward to celebrating ONE YEAR of your famous post on bitcoin death and IMMINENT COLLAPSE.

Certainly will be the joke of the year.
Reply
So predictable, I was just thinking this morning seeing Bitcoin 4% drop, Renev will post another one of his “I hope...” hopium updates on bear market.

Just like the clock, he does.

Carry on.
Reply
MrRenev BorisPoff
@BorisPoff, And you took the bait as always...
Reply
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