Bitcoin has witnessed another strong drop, but has not triggered the main stop loss, as we are now approaching the demand accumulation zone. Now that we are getting closer to our CME Gap, we can start analyzing the long positions, while everyone remains bearish. We have remained bearish while everyone was bullish. While everyone remains bullish for the time being, we may start building long positions every step down. Remember folks, we have been calling for the drop weeks ago. Here is why we believe a relief bounce is in the books: 1. Strong bullish divergence on the 1H TF. 2. Contrarian theory suggests that while the 'Crypto Fear and Greed' Index is now showing a 'fear', we can assume that most people will be shorting the bottom at this point in time. 3. Possible parallel channel in the making here, connecting the high and low points. 4. If the bottom has been established, we can see a strong relief bounce to the 618 fib level, which is a 14-15% bounce from these levels.
Playing the relief bounce does not make us immediately bullish for the mid term. We have consistently noted that we are still going to be seeing mid 9K levels and will be monitoring the situation on how the market reacts at that certain period of time. Too many people are making predictions way ahead of the spectrum when they do not know what will happen in the immediate term.
Trade Safe.
X Force
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Strong bullish divergence has been created. We are opening long positions here despite of a price drop, as there is clear demand in this cluster region between 9.7-10.4K.
All these charts are a joke, the truth is nobody knows for sure, markets don't move by the patterns of pretty circles/flowers or the way some "imagine" it. Once some bad news or good news comes out, it can go totally the opposite way. Yes, my comment may not be popular with many, but those are just fooling themselves.... 'nuff said. ;)
XForceGlobal
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@BillAnt, Thank you so much for your kind feedback! You are absolutely 100% correct on that, nobody can predict the market completely correctly, but it's completely fine to create theories and suggestions based on a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Your comment is a shining light to new traders, and we appreciate that! Our disclaimer always states that the lines drawn are just for reference on the 'overall' direction of the market.
BlockTechEv
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@BillAnt in stockbroking we call it the Efficiant Market Hypothesis... and I agree.
Gis_a_pint
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@BlockTechEv, "Efficiant Market Hypothesis".................jargon for "i haven't a bloody clue"
@BillAnt, when it comes to backtesting, I try to incorporate technical analysis with fundamental circumstances to see how both hold up together. It will always appear spontaneous, data itself... raw numbers. However, people can be obvious, which the markets are run by; therefore, charts can often times be predictable.
kree8yoorf8
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@BillAnt, pshhhh those are sick lines he drew bro.
Jason_Avina
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@BillAnt, Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen in engineering, but you can manufacture things to certain specifications and hope for the best. Sometimes parts fail. Software fails. Machines fail. Nobody is ever 100% sure almost anything will work, but using the best evidence we have, coming up with theories, and testing those theories, then keeping them when they work and disgarding them when they don't is basically the way all scientific knowledge up to this point has been developed. There was apoint in time when Biology was just people poking around at other people with sharp objects. But slowly using observation of trends and patterns, we began to see how it worked. Its the same with anything else we're trying to learn more about. Charts like this and hypothesis like this are how people learn to predict and analyze things. Not by just throwing our hands up in the air and going, its hopeless!