It is time to make an update because the current Bitcoin price action has started to draw some high-probability trading areas. Lately, the BTC price has been quite loyal to . As you see, this analysis is made in the middle of the day with expecting a breakout from the long-lasted down . The breakout is not confirmed yet but if it gets confirmed then I will expect that the current move may find its end around $9,000 and there it is - the possible short-term reversal area!
The Down-Trendline From 2019 High
If we observe different exchanges then in some cases this down has already broken but in the majority, it is not. I follow the majority and today this could be the day when we finally may get a breakout from it and considering mid-, long-term it is a pretty strong statement from bulls which may end a correction since mid of 2019.
If we look at a bit bigger picture then since 2018 December the bigger trend has been upwards, from $3,100 to $14,000. Considering that we can call it a counter-trendline (CTL). My older followers should know that those CTLs have been offered pretty powerful trading setups and probably this is not an exception, obviously after today's candle close above of it.
Possibly, we may get a buying opportunity but there needs to line up some criteria and as you probably know, my bread and butter are short-term reversal trades, not breakout trades. The current possible breakout just tells to me that bulls are trying to push the price into my marked high-probability short-term reversal area around $9,000-$9,350.
High-Probability Trading Area.
If we get today's candle close above the CTL, above EMA100&200 then I assume the price will reach my marked red box.
The marked red short-term reversal area is between $9,000 -$9,3500 and it consists of:
1. The round number of $9,000 has been a pretty psychological number for buyers and sellers.
2. The strongest horizontal price level inside the box should be the blue line ~9,300 - it has got the most rejections on the Daily.
4. 38%, pulled from 2019 high to 2019 December low.
5. Several Fibonacci Extensions 2x 127% 1x 200%
6. 4H timeframe clear and the D point is exactly inside the red box.
7. 4H timeframe channel projection
8. The target (this is the Fib Extension 200%)
9. The IHS target is inside the red box. Both of these patterns aren't textbook examples but in general, they should show where the momentum may find its end. Both ideas are on the "Related Idea" section below of this post.
10. Risk lovers can short it at $9,300 but to get a higher success rate for trades then wait for a formation. The area is pretty wide so, wait for it from 4H.
As said, the mid-, long-term sentiment should stay as long the Bitcoin price is above the CTL. So, the targets should stay $8,500, $8,000, $7,600. Perfect would be a retest and let the bull run continue. Hopefully, we get into the wave upwards after the CTL retest as shown on the image!
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This idea has played out pretty perfect and the price should be heading to the marked green box: