great post, but my calculation exactly shows 4th september 2025 we have new ath
btcgoat
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@KevaFX you still see the bottom coming in March? I see most traders on crypto twitter calling ~15k was the bottom
KevaFX
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@btcgoat, I have bought some of my favorite cryptos during these years, a trader never waits for the bottom and top. however, I have more orders in much lower prices, if price goes down that will be great for me, If goes up I loose nothing. From the analysis point pf view, nothing changed and this upward move is just a correction. Moreover, the fact that you mentioned "I see most traders on crypto twitter calling ~15k was the bottom" means that it is not. The majority are always wrong in trading.
btcgoat
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@KevaFX, thanks for the insight, maybe twitter is 50/50 the bulls are just louder at the moment haha!
I am open to the idea of 15k bottom since it is similar in percentage to previous historical btc corrections, but we are approaching strong resistance with weekly 200ma around 24.5k, a htf close above that level would give me bullish confirmation. I commented on this post because I find your Ichimoku time analysis interesting, forecasting price is hard but time is even more difficult, if we did bottom in November 2022 then this analysis is off by several months and not a reliable indicator
You're right, no one should wait for bottom/top, just curious to hear what you think about this recent rally if indeed it is a bear market rally or beginning of a new macro bull trend!
arvine11
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if your time analysis be correct and this correction phase continues until april 2023 bottom will be 13k, because this correction is like 2014 downtrend..
KevaFX
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@arviiine, it is possible. there is 3 different scenario. I have already published on of them. If the price stops between 32900 and 28766 I will publish another scenario. moreover, you can see my analysis for TOTAL,TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 soon enough.