"All big changes in price are followed by big changes in price"

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
155 1 4
One of the stylized characteristics of volatility is known as Clustering: Large changes in price are followed by large changes in price, and small changes in price are followed by small changes in price. To me, it looks like over the last few weeks we have been in a pattern of low volatility clustering during the weekdays, and high volatility clustering on the weekends. For this reason I forecast we will experience another period of high volatility during the weekend of June 18-20th. (Interestingly this is very close to the BREXIT referendum).

The reason why I believe this volatility will be bearish is due to technical reasons. The first reason is that if you look at the last major Bitcoin rally, and compare it to this one, they are about the same height now mirrored on a log scale. The second reason is that we are at a major resistance Zone at the 50% retrace of bitcoins all time high to the lowest low after that high set. The Third reason is we have RSI in the Overbought zone.

Since Volume can be thin on weekends. I expect a major market player to try and move the price this weekend. Since a lot of people are trying to buy in on the rally due to FOMO, I imagine this market player will look to sell hard into the bid. This will push down the price, create fear, and the subsequent result will be a sharp sell off.

My target for the Sell Off is $500
9 months ago
I was right about large change in price coming, but wrong about the direction. This rally is too tough to call, but with ~$780 being tested again on BITFINEX we will see...
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