Textbook bear flag correction on the way down to 10,300 - after that expecting rally to wrestle with the old yellow bear trendline, then finally onwards to 13,600 high target
Right now we're just bouncing around inside the white ranging box (between the 50% fibs of both moves).
Note how the big selloff rebounded to the 0.705 OTE retrace, so I'm expecting the same for this correction of the rebound itself, before rallying.
And yes, will end up painting a big bearish Gartley, so expecting a fall after high target
Trade active
⋅
flag resolved as expected with a solid dump ;) looking for it to settle on the 0.705
Trade closed: target reached
⋅
Dumpers got a little spooked, but still ended up touching the 0.764 retrace fib nicely. Loooots of calls for heading straight south for 8-9K, but there's big walls at 10K, and we should start consolidating and getting ready for the rebound soon
Comment
⋅
another view which shows the long brown trendline where we just touched bottom at 10K
Trade active
⋅
bounce in progress. expect pause/pullback when we approach the downtrend shoulder line, which will also setup the inverse H&S
Trade active
⋅
wonderful micro fractal of the larger move -- we just rebounded quickly from the 10K local bottom, and the reached back down to kiss the 0.705 OTE of this 15min rebound. That just happens to be the same 10,300 price level as the OTE I posted in the original hourly chart that we were aiming for after the rebound of Jan 17th.
Trade active
⋅
in this kind of reversal territory, with people expecting 8K right away, you're not going to get tidy touches. Expect whiplash and excess. But retrace is done, time for bounce
Trade active
⋅
Despite all the drama down here, and incessant calls for drop straight to 8K -- all this congestion has just formed a solid support floor, with 10K holding tight for a double bottom. Note the incoming and outgoing trendlines, expect price to dance up and down them on the way out just like it did on the way in.
Comment
⋅
Another view that shows how even the panic wick (thanks, weak hands!) that pushed briefly to 9900 was just a second touch of the channel bottom. Expect another pullback and consolidation when we hit the 12K channel top
Comment
⋅
Perspective... zoom out... Note the red trendline coming all the way from the ATH. We've already fallen out of this channel recently with the forceful selloff to 9K and then jumped right back up in it --- thus channel harmonics demand that the next breach be on the upside ;)
Trade active
⋅
rebound flagging, testing the topside of the local shoulder line, but we haven't wrestled with the channel top at 12K yet
Trade active
⋅
still crawling out of the gutter, currently wrestling with the 11,100 S/R level (goes way back to the first selloff from the ATH)
Comment
⋅
I've got a new optimistic high target, based on the 1.618 fib extension (and the obvious channel top, which I didn't think the bulls had enough juice to reach). The Weiss Ratings are about to drop in 2 hours, and could provide rocket fuel...
Comment
⋅
Still higher highs, higher lows, crawling up slowly from the wide-bottomed reversal ;)
Comment
⋅
still no breakout energy, and we're in danger of dropping one more time to recharge. If so, expect another quick test of the 10,500 zone. Could be just the thing we need to finally bust out the top
Trade active
⋅
another triangle bottom touch would look like this on the original chart
Trade active
⋅
First kiss of downtrend shoulder line -- pullback from that kiss shouldn't be a surprise. Remains to be seen whether we fall from here back to the triangle bottom or we hold this level and pop the top. We've been slowly crawling up quite the ascending wedge, wouldn't take much to drop out
At last someone whose charts actually are based in reality before the fact and not afterwards :-)
bearthedog1319
⋅
@Atlantean, Seriously, how many "Profitable" traders show trends/support after the fact. Thats who our money comes from tho.
heisginger
⋅
Many thanks for this analysis. Useful and really interesting to hear others' views.
On bitfinex earlier today, I saw how huge sell orders took out the 10k support (approx 1000BTC). As soon as it was broken, and it touched $9900, the large sell orders evaporated. This says to me that large players were trying to trigger stop losses just below the big wall, easy prey, minnows like me, rather than drive it down further at this point.
As you say many people in the media/blogs/traders have been calling for 8k or lower, so whales will naturally take advantage if they are able to. I don't know anyone else managing $5-20M stacks that act in this way... institutional investors buy and sell in a less aggressive fashion IMO. Very interesting times, or perhaps just par for the crypto course (I've only been in this since my first purchase of BTC @$900 last Jan).
My first buy at these current levels was interrupted by the support penetration mentioned above, so my SL triggered at $9999.9. I bought back at $10040 after the dip, and for now at least, things are moving in the right direction... Let's hope the analysis pans out... right now 14K seems a moonshot away! Great forum for discussion btw. Thx.
darkandblue
⋅
@heisginger, just to note, he is also calling for the (K but after another run up.
heisginger
⋅
@retiringsoon1, Noted yes! In the other post he talks of 14k, here 13.6k, but let's see what happens if/when we reach the top of the channel.
heisginger
⋅
@retiringsoon1 Trade closed at $11,350 on the pullback. Will look to re-enter at a lower level. Rather nice 13% profit. If it were always that simple, and quick, we'd all be able to retire early.
darkandblue
⋅
@heisginger, thanks for the pun :) i am gonna ride it..i think this pattern makes the most sense
UnknownUnicorn995432
⋅
There is a possibility that Weiss index can, and may flip the whole market as well.
I am going to wait in fiat now.
The risk/reward ratio is extremely poor based on this.
Their own website has announced that their ratings are likely to lead to controversies (which is understandable). I suggest caution at this time. Now is not the time to take unnecessary risks. Just wait and observe.
kieco
⋅
If it breaks below the 0.705 retrace, will we see a sharp dip to low 9k?