First I would like to say that I am not sure which way this will go, nor do I think anyone can honestly tell you with confidence/certainty that they do.
Here is the bearish scenario if we happen to break the neckline of the double-headed head and shoulders that has formed. Keep in mind that that the neckline is support at the moment until it breaks. Even after it breaks, it may be retested from the bottom. If the retest of the neckline happens to fail, then the target becomes the distance of the height of the head to the neckline. If it happened to break down exactly at this point (and there was no retest) then the target would become approximately $6,200.
This wouldn't mean that the upward trend has ended. In fact Bitcoin had multiple setbacks such as this in the 2017 bull run. I'll post a follow up below showing more examples, but this type of price action is common and certainly adds to how Bitcoin got the reputation for being as volatile as it is.
If the neckline holds as support, and Bitcoin heads towards new highs, then my target becomes the 1.236 fib which is $15,400.
Comment
⋅
Here are two head and shoulder patterns that played out in the 2017 bull run. As you can see, this reversal pattern playing out clearly doesn't mean the end of a bull market.
Comment
⋅
Here is some better perspective of what these two head and shoulder patterns meant in terms of the overall uptrend in 2017.