BTC Could Be Headed Towards This Critical Fib Crossing Point
Is BTC headed towards the crossing of my 2 major fib sets that have been magically predicting movements for the past month? Could be... let's have a look from the MACRO perspective today.
I have my two major sets of fib circles that are created from significant points on the chart, not just random points. I tend to prefer setting up my rings from actual points rather than constructing the lines to just fit the price movements. It's a bit more scientific, in my opinion. Here are the date ranges:
Before we look at the fib lines, let's talk about a few obvious things we see on this chart. First of all, we are flying high above the 50-day EMA line, and as we see, we are headed in the direction that would take us back down to the line. It looks like we are entering a cycle where we drop down to the 50-day. And punching THROUGH that line is a possibility. We need to remember that the 50-day EMA line is an AVERAGE. How long have we been flying high above that average? Yes, the line is constructed from trailing history. However, we do know from the past that after extended periods of time, it has been predicted to drop back down to or below the line.
Second thing, notice the position of the stochastic. It's in mid-flight down, looking like the fast and slow lines are still divergent. If the history on the chart is any indication, this also points to a possible drop of price back towards the 50-day EMA. IF we continue this bear trend, $7200 certainly looks like a possibility just based on the 50-day EMA.
Now let's look at our big blue & red fib circle lines, and see what clues they are giving us. Notice the crossing of the 4.618 and the 1.618 red & blue lines. This certainly tells us that it is possible that BTC will propagate towards this critical crossing. Combine that with the evidence of the 50-day EMA, and the formation of a larger overall down-sloping flat-bottom triangle, and it looks to me that we have a greater possibility of this happening as we saw-tooth our way down in this bearish trend. I think it is certainly the highest probability, although several other scenarios are certainly possible. But this seems to have the most indications of what could happen. Let's watch this over time, and see if it pans out.
All of these clues can give us a roadmap to understanding the overall direction, and definitely helps in zoning in on the highest probability. It's always best to zoom OUT and look at the big picture, and take our focus off of the micro movements. But keep in mind, ANYTHING is possible with this wild market. But it looks to me that early September will take us to the next stopping point of $7200. Where will it go from there? We could bounce and continue the overall up-trend, or we could see $5400, and as I mentioned before, there is evidence pointing to a correction that could take it lower as we head to the end of the year. If we do complete a deep correction, it will only set up a bigger boom when we enter the next true bull market. So overall, barring any black swan event, I think this looks like a healthy development for Bitcoin's future.
What is YOUR prediction? I'd love to hear your ideas. Meanwhile, check out my video here on my YouTube channel to hear my commentary, and please subscribe to the channel and join in on the conversation!
Carlton the CryptoPro
I have my two major sets of fib circles that are created from significant points on the chart, not just random points. I tend to prefer setting up my rings from actual points rather than constructing the lines to just fit the price movements. It's a bit more scientific, in my opinion. Here are the date ranges:
- July 23rd 2018 to December 10th 2018 RED
November 12th 2018 to June 24th 2019 BLUE
Before we look at the fib lines, let's talk about a few obvious things we see on this chart. First of all, we are flying high above the 50-day EMA line, and as we see, we are headed in the direction that would take us back down to the line. It looks like we are entering a cycle where we drop down to the 50-day. And punching THROUGH that line is a possibility. We need to remember that the 50-day EMA line is an AVERAGE. How long have we been flying high above that average? Yes, the line is constructed from trailing history. However, we do know from the past that after extended periods of time, it has been predicted to drop back down to or below the line.
Second thing, notice the position of the stochastic. It's in mid-flight down, looking like the fast and slow lines are still divergent. If the history on the chart is any indication, this also points to a possible drop of price back towards the 50-day EMA. IF we continue this bear trend, $7200 certainly looks like a possibility just based on the 50-day EMA.
Now let's look at our big blue & red fib circle lines, and see what clues they are giving us. Notice the crossing of the 4.618 and the 1.618 red & blue lines. This certainly tells us that it is possible that BTC will propagate towards this critical crossing. Combine that with the evidence of the 50-day EMA, and the formation of a larger overall down-sloping flat-bottom triangle, and it looks to me that we have a greater possibility of this happening as we saw-tooth our way down in this bearish trend. I think it is certainly the highest probability, although several other scenarios are certainly possible. But this seems to have the most indications of what could happen. Let's watch this over time, and see if it pans out.
All of these clues can give us a roadmap to understanding the overall direction, and definitely helps in zoning in on the highest probability. It's always best to zoom OUT and look at the big picture, and take our focus off of the micro movements. But keep in mind, ANYTHING is possible with this wild market. But it looks to me that early September will take us to the next stopping point of $7200. Where will it go from there? We could bounce and continue the overall up-trend, or we could see $5400, and as I mentioned before, there is evidence pointing to a correction that could take it lower as we head to the end of the year. If we do complete a deep correction, it will only set up a bigger boom when we enter the next true bull market. So overall, barring any black swan event, I think this looks like a healthy development for Bitcoin's future.
What is YOUR prediction? I'd love to hear your ideas. Meanwhile, check out my video here on my YouTube channel to hear my commentary, and please subscribe to the channel and join in on the conversation!
Carlton the CryptoPro