This is a unique study showing the correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with the S&P500/Gold ratio (SPX/XAUUSD) displayed by the orange trend-line.
On this 1W time-frame, Bitcoin has broken above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and will attempt to make the first closing above it, in order to confirm the new Bull Cycle beyond any doubt. In the previous Cycle this took place on the week of April 29 2019.
As you can see, the patterns between the two Cycles are identical. Bitcoin tends to peak earlier when the S&P500/Gold ratio makes its last Higher High before it eventually tops after BTC is well within its Bear Cycle. The S&P500/Gold ratio then forms a series of Lower Highs, the second of which is when BTC bottoms (excluding the FTX crash, that would have been the bottom). At the moment we are expecting a Lower Low on the S&P500/Gold ratio in order to price the first High of the first rally of the new Bull Cycle.
Do you think the S&P500/Gold ratio is leading the way for Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
Very nice! a breath of fresh air, however bitcoin at the moment still has bearish divergence on the daily. Once this is broken the move will be valid, until then we could get another scare before bitcoin gets the final say. I'll post my chart as reference here
Gold-Tech
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A potentially successful plan. Thanks for sharing)
jmsh1220
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Correlation lead-lag appears to swing back and forth. However, all three are headed down from here. SPY and BTC are headed for new lows, whereas Gold will likely hold at previous weekly support.
RLinda
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Thanks for the detailed analysis of the potential asset movement, that was very helpful. Very interesting to watch your reasoning on technical analysis.