Two days ago, Bitcoin broke above the sloping resistance, which is bullish in the short term. However, then it quickly erased gains, and the breakout became invalidated. So far, despite the ongoing rally in the stock market, the price action in Bitcoin has remained muted. We believe that reflects a lack of risk appetite among market participants.
Indeed, at the current stock market value, we would expect BTCUSD to trade much higher from the current level; yet, it merely continues the choppy price action near the 19 300 USD price tag. That tells us something is not exactly right. Therefore, we are very cautious. As for the price targets, they remain unchanged at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD due to the persistence of macroeconomic factors.
Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. The yellow arrow points to the bullish breakout above the sloping resistance; volume is declining throughout the rise, which is not particularly bullish.
Technical analysis - daily time frame Stochastic is bullish. MACD is rising but still below the 0 points; if it breaks above, it will be a bullish sign. RSI is neutral. DM+ and DM- are causing whipsaws, with the ADX hinting at the neutral trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.02 Simple moving averages on the daily chart of BTCUSD reflect the neutral nature of the prevailing short-term trend that is currently in place.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are trending sideways in the lower bound of the bearish zone. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone as well. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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The volume experiences pick-up on the hourly time frame (after rebound from the sloping resistance/now support). We will pay close attention to volume level; in order to support the bullish narrative, the volume should continue rise with the price. If it starts dropping, then it will raise our suspicion.
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The declining volume raises our concerns.
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The declining volume supports our notion about the unsustainability of the rally.
just imagine how many people went long with atleast 2x laverege at ~20k. btc will go below 10k (my target is 9600 because there is a cme gap which needs to get filled) so all of those longs will get liquidated and the market makers will laugh hard! 👌
wargolynch
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@Ben_vouh, Nobody cares about this zero volume future called CME. Seriously, it's a joke when compared to perpetual futures contracts from Binance, FTX, ByBit, Bitmex... Why were past gaps all filled in your opinion? You'll find the answer by thinking about the date it opened and what always happens following a bear market... If you want to study institutional grade tools, you'd better look at Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and the Proshares ETF. Like in 2017/2018, we can see GBTC is maybe paving the way...
Bitgolder
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@Ben_vouh, It'll never happen, CME gap or not. It's like saying gold will go to $100 dollars because of a CME gap. Charts and TA can only do so much and regardless of what they say sometimes the value of an asset or stock will not allow it to drop below its actual value. Bitcoin is worth much more than where it is at now, I mean real value. If there wasn't any type of futures trading and only real bitcoins traded I mean actually held by exchanges then Bitcoin would be over a million dollars right now. There's a lot of manipulation with all these paper contracts in Bitcoin and all commodity markets actually that artificially suppress the price of anything that poses a risk to the USD.
LUC_Capital
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@Bitgolder, "It's like saying gold will go to $100 dollars because of a CME gap" Hahahaha I needed that laugh today, thanks.
Bitgolder
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@LUC_Capital, No problem glad I could be of some entertainment. :}
Bitgolder
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@LUC_Capital, Also dont laugh too hard, almost every call you have made on your charts all the way back to at least July where I stopped looking, the price action went in the complete opposite direction of your calls except for your Eth call a couple months back.
LUC_Capital
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@Bitgolder, Nah ima keep on laughing because even though I post a lot of predictions, I only trade the ones I'm 100% confident with, and I've been shorting BTC since 45K and ETH since 4K. So what is that, 75% of my "charts" that you don't have a point for. And the rest of the 25% ones are, well, you can see for your self ;) imgur.com/a/mwqpbTX If you're mad you're in sunk fallacy to an asset that will never again make an ATH, take it out on your therapist, and Good Luck.
Bitgolder
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@LUC_Capital, I'm not mad at all, I'm actually quite happy most of the time. You seem like the angry one. Either way you do you man. ✌️🤙
LUC_Capital
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@Bitgolder, Yes, the one in profit is angry, definitely not the one that went all in to BTC at the ATH and is now -56%✌️🤙
Bitgolder
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@LUC_Capital, If you say so. You can see when I joined here over 5 years ago big guy, I went all in on Bitcoin in 2015 and 2016 I don't need to buy more. I make a few trades here and there when the risk to reward is worth it and put the profits from the trades into Bitcoin. Im not shorting or longing Bitcoin, I bought and held and my portfolio is up multiple thousands of percent. I am bullish on bitcoin on the Macro for sure and I will remain invested for a very long time, I dont care about these ups and downs because I know where we're headed in the longrun and Im not stressed for money so the price matters little to me. Not many people can say they have retired in their 30's. I hope you become a billionaire man, I mean that. I love watching people make money. good luck in your trades