oi rise , price down ( 새로운 short position 증가 ) cvd positivie 전환 ( 시장가로 매수 증가 , 숏 포지션이 증가 된 이후 전환 되었음 )
큰 변화 이전까지는 8.7 - 9.7 이 이주의 TR 아래쪽에서는 롱을 , 위쪽으로는 숏을 잡는게 좋은 R/R ( Risk / Reward ) 를 형성 할 수 있습니다.
아래로 작성되는 커멘트 들은 개인적인 트레이딩 근거 / 복기 입니다. ( 따라하면 피 봄~ )
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POC 위치한 9545 에서의 reaction 확인 후 추가 스윙 전략 예상
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network difficulty rise (approx 15%) coming day
At Bitcoin's current hash rate, the next difficulty adjustment, in ~2 days, could be the largest since January 2018, with an estimated increase of ~15%
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closed long scalp here, weak progression. we will retest of demand most likley long laddered from 8.9-8.7 stop 8.6
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short scalp opened 9110. i reckon we see another demand test ( expect wick to make SFP )
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target 8.9ish i will switch to long when SFP confirm
bitmex 또한 그 곳에 가장 많은 liquidity 가 존재하고 있는 것을 보여줍니다.
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scalp 트레이딩시 지난 4시간 봉안에서의 2번의 트레이딩 자리
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*1시간
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previous short scalp closed (trailing stop) 9060 where the KEY/DIP Swing low
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9333 ish is next hammer area
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No clear rejection following, 9544 is next supply zone
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Start laddering short here to 9.7xx.
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value area is near 9250 , i would like to see test that order blocks.
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closed short for now, fresh liquidity above 9.5
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FA : Fed backstopping and fuel Equities will hold sometime longer. BTC could follow
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Trade closed manually
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opened short 9577
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opened short 9577
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closed short here, this forming re accumulation in stf. could wick up again to 9.7
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9.2-9.7 jammed
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9.2 first maybe?
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if i can see a nice support on daily support, will open long scalp to 9.7 value area
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today's quote :
Operation Bernhard was a Nazi plan to drop forged British bank notes from planes over London. It aimed to collapse their economy, and destroy the value of the currency.
The Nazi's knew that flooding the country with fake money would be devastating for the British.
What we're seeing now is countries flooding themselves with fiat, which will in turn result in hyper-inflation, and bring down the economy.
Anyone who says "Everything is fine" just doesn't understand basic economics.
네 저는 아직 분배중이라고 생각합니다. SUPPLY TREND 를 깨지 않는 선에서 9.7 중반까지의 상승은 가능하다고 보고. Sell 이 시작될때는 8.5 -> 8.9~9 0 -> 7.7 정도로 Supply 를 absorption 할꺼라고 생각합니다.
현재 작은 시간대 안에서는 9.7 이 먼저일지 아래로 향해 9.2 정도에서 지지가 될지 (지지가 된다면 다시 위쪽 서플라이를 테스트 가능) 정도로 생각하며 접근하고 있습니다.
현재 오더플로우는 9.2 와 9 에 강한 압력을 만들어 놓은 상황이며 , (지지 가능성 ) 매도 압력은 9.7부터 보여지고 있습니다. CVD 와 Oi 는 어떤 특별한 것은 보이지 않고 있습니다. 시장의 움직임과 동일하게 움직여지고 있으며, CVD 가 시장가 거래로 돌아설때 , 가격의 움직임과 Oi 의 움직임을 보면 추 후의 움직임을 한번 추측해 볼 수 있을 것 같습니다.
저는 현재 숏포지션 scalp 로만 대응하고 있으며, 하락이 길어질 시에는 스윙으로 전환 하려고 생각하고 있습니다. 기존의 스윙 포지션들은 모두 정리하였습니다.
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*별첨
나스닥은 고점갱신 하더라도 지지하지 못할 것이라 생각합니다. 연준에서 기업 본드들을 구매하더라도 , 그 정책은 당장 금융시장에 재료가 될 뿐 길게 지속 될 수 있다고 생각하지 않습니다.
상식이 통하지 않는 시장이지만 , 상식 을 깨지 않는 선에서 시장을 바라봐야 큰 방향을 볼 수 있다고 생각하며,
트레이딩은 이와별개로 단순히 "머니게임" 이라고 생각하고 있습니다.
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Trading one strategy with discipline beats 10 strategies without discipline.
powell still speaking , but doesn't seems very promising for another push up for market. i do expect bounce around last daily open. but i will not close short position, could dip more.
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3day bullish pinbar?
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Price - Up CVD - Up Open Interest - Down Top traders positions - Short Funding rates - positive
okex futs, mex -> lots of absorption , passive buy, cvd flat, oi down.
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running long scalp before i find another SoW. possible short hunt to 9.7-9.8 lots of orders stacked up those value area.
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1) On 26th June, 1BN+ notional BTC+ETH options will expire. By far the largest expiration ever, articles and views are circulating regarding the impact this may have. Much of this interpretation of the big picture is conjecture without an appreciation for the composition.
2) In BTC, 60% of the listed OI is positioned at Deribit across a huge spectrum of strikes 2.5-32k, OTM Puts 25k, OTM Calls 37k. The significant balance at the CME, focussed almost entirely on 10-15k range Calls (equivalent 25k>10.8k), which is weighted heavily to Call spreads.
3) In most people's dreams and nightmares, <5k >15k are outside bounds over the next week, which leaves approx 20k OTM Puts and 50k OTM Calls. The 2:5 Put:Call ratio commonly denotes a bullish bias, but this measure, while often indicatively useful, should be used within context.
4) On the CME, not all the Call spreads have been bought, as some narratives like to suggest. On Deribit, covered Call strategies increase OI, but clearly, the seller is only semi-bullish, and BTC bought with protective Put increases Put OI (bearish) but seeks a strong mkt rally!
5) Those that argue every trade is balanced, should note a Call sold to a MM is delta hedged - MM happy if BTC falls, yet Call OI up indicating a bullish bias.
As illustrated, Put/Call ratios are not a crystal ball to the future, but do highlight aggregated areas of interest.
6) Combined with skew measures, another image emerges. In recent weeks, aside from the ubiquitous 25d Put/Call measure, greater granularity shows that the <20d tails were elevated for Puts and Calls, suggesting initial interest in both was net buying or some reticence to sell.
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7) This makes sense, as pre-crash, there was wild abandonment in Jun26 upside Call strikes up to 32k, with an eye on post-halving euphoria. Post-crash, Puts were bought within structured products, new BTC longs, and by miners as protection. End-users long OI wings, LPs net short.
8) Note BTC will not gravitate independently to massive OI strikes. In the Deribit Insights article 'Why Crypto Options..Trillions', BTC options are 1% of BTC derivs, cf to 59% in trad markets. Option 'gamma gravity' can impinge on eg S&P - be aware 19th Jun 12tln quad-witching.
9) What can impact an expiry are ITM options, but surprisingly, given 2020 spot volatility, there are only 3k ITM Calls and 1k ITM puts. Furthermore, likely >half the ITM Calls are held delta neutral by MMs and due to put-call parity vs Jun future hedged vs Puts ie little impact.
10) Should the BTC market move materially, it will initially be due to spot/derivs momentum, not option OI. But as expiry approaches and option deltas change rapidly, a big spot move in a thin market could be exacerbated by large OI strikes and necessary dynamic delta hedging.
11) Put skew firmness confirms downside fears into large OI, but having tested this area, the downside appears well managed. But the upside is recently untested. A sharp pump >11k into large Deribit+CME strikes could create a perfect storm of illiquidity in the underlying market.
12) With some CME risk being offset on Deribit, hypothetically if BTC >11k on expiry day, a dislocation of expiry times on Deribit and CME, 8hours apart, could cause challenges for CME short option holders without a natural hedge, potentially compounding adverse spot moves.
13) The massive Jun26 OI will not be rolled out in entirety; most Calls were bought for halving, most Puts defensively post-crash. But some OTM options with negligible value are starting to be replaced with opening trades in July+Sep. Jun26 options with value are being rolled.
14) The rolling strategy enacted early in trad markets to avoid the front-month longs rapidly decaying, is left much later in BTC. Indeed, much of the time, near month options are allowed to expire and new exposure is added on the expiry day. Expect large July+Sep option trades.
15) The huge Jun26 expiry OI may well be an anomaly, but clearly, the trajectory of volumes and options interest is rapidly rising. As the BTC markets become more mature, more macro accounts and funds will enter, whether vol trading, hedging, yield creation, or adding exposure.
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*supply trend 가 위치한 9.6-9.8까지 숏 스탑헌트 가 예상 되는 주
i reckon we are almost there
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current position long scalp opened avg 9.2xx target over 9.6-9.8 stop below 9150
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aggressive selling in to low. price didn't low that much = accumulated for pop up
손익비에 대해 조금 설명을 드리려고 해요. SFP 를 근거로 현재 자리에서 롱 포지션을 진입한다면 손절권은 KEY SWING LOW 하단일 것이고 타겟은 기존 분석에 근거하여 9.5 ~ 9.8 정도 가 될것입니다.
이런 자리는 개인적인 트레이딩 방식으로는 굉장히 메리트가 있는 자리라고 저는 항상 사용하고 있습니다 ^^
본인의 트레이딩 방식을 만들고 그것을 고수하는게 중요하다고 생각합니다. 분석에는 너무 다양한 방법이 있고 어떤 것도 정답은 아닙니다. 스스로에게 잘 맞는 승률이 좋고 리스크 관리가 되는 방식을 택하여 꾸준히 욕심내지 않으면 "돈" 충분히 버실 수 있습니다. 그리고 개인적으로 가장 어려운 것은 분석 후 찾아오는 "기다림" 이라고 생각합니다. 계획 -> 기다림 (여기가 제일 힘들어요) -> 실행 (실행 후 오류시 빠른 정리)
화이팅
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long liquidity was just engineered below a false break of support
oi rise massive cvd follow positive buy pressure on futs , passive sell spots expecting last short squeeze before doom.
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be very cautious longing here, lots of weird activity (sell) both in spot , futs. im adding my short position, and it seems this could be a swing short.
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not sure what is purpose of this pa , even if it goes up, prob gonna be massive move. but i am still leaning bearish here.
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price rise, oi rise = new longs cvd negative = reckon retail buying im stayin with my short position. hope to get more filled, but doesn't really seems like it could.
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if we see drop, my target is around 8k before another small rally
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CME #Bitcoin Options Jun. 19, 2020
One week remaining on the June contract and suddenly put spreads appear!
We have 2000 BTC worth of put spreads targeting the resistance zone $8,700-$8,500.
Down to 7 calls for every 1 put.
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25% more filled. Sustain above 9550 -> 9.7-9.8 Fill my orders :)
@MacroTradingE 항상 잘 보고있습니다. 아직도 전 분배중에 있다고 생각하고있습니다. 기본적으로 재가보기론 메크로트레이딩님 분석기준이 프라이스액션에 의해 여겨지는데 혹시 레벨보는법을 아시는지요..? 레벨보는법을 알고싶은데 찾아봐도 자세하게 알려진곳이 없습니다 ㅜㅠ