This is not an actual trade, so I left the idea neutral so people wouldn't think I was advocating this. I just want to be able to look back and see if I was right.
Right now we have a lot of people hoping and anticipating a possible long-term uptrend in bitcoin, seeing that we are near a potential break-out zone. However, there is another possibility here, which is that the pattern from June-July last year could be playing out again.
This pattern consists of wild price fluctuations within range of the local top. Eventually, the volume dies off and the market stagnates before panicking down to the last major support level and eventually resuming the downtrend. Trying to make sense of the market variations within this range can be a challenging task, but it could still break either way, so I would advocate waiting a while longer before trying to decide which way this is going to go. As always, watch volume for confirmation of any trends. Being that the market is in a downtrend, it is still safer to go with the trend than against it, so this could turn into a good short trade if it plays out.
I was just thinking about what you posted. Absolutely on the nail my friend!
oaksacorn
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I think we will get 315 and go from there. We need consolidation above 360 to proof anything out. I think the Monthly stochastic points to a difference this time that will coincide with good fundamental flow, I don't think this is a repeat of May and June. The weekly is positive as the monthly is crossing from very low levels. Look for the 3 & 4 hour to rule the roost and pin the daily higher and fight for the aforementioned levels.
ditz
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Agreed, suspected similar using May/June 2014 surge as a pattern - just couldn't decide if we were midway up, or just over the top. Now leaning to the latter where it matches best though on an accelerated time-frame. As you say next couple of days will reveal more.
shawndietzer
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Yea you're probably right. If it keeps going up, what area are you watching for a major trend reversal? 305ish?
altcoinbonanza
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I would have to look closely before I throw out a number. I'll let you know.