This will more than likely take several years to play out (could be wrong) but the risk to reward here is getting ripe because we're well below the mean. I have a buy order at 6k. I wouldn't be surprised if it went lower but it's more risky to not buy at this level than it is to buy for the long term. We're sitting at a .67 on the @TIPMayerMultple so if it goes lower... I would get ready to dump your fiat into this with a dump truck. Given I'm not selling until the next bubble, I don't mind holding if it goes into the $4-5k range.
Not investment advice. Don't invest money you can't afford to lose.
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I went ahead and moved my order on Friday and picked up more BTC at $6170. The Mayer Multiple is just too low to justify being greedy about $170 in price discrepancy. At this point, it's too risky NOT to buy in my opinion. Anything below the .70 Mayer Multiple is ripe for the picking.
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Still here. Have picked up lots and lots of BTC in the $3,100 to 4k range. We are in the accumulation phase. Dollar cost averaging into position
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Now is the time to be pouring in if you really want to get the most value out of your trade. Once we break above 6k, the bull market will be full steam ahead and you don't want to miss this next fractal pattern. Once it takes off, we will likely not see sub 10k levels ever again.
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If you accumulated in the undervalued zones, congratulations, now is the time to sit back and straight hold. We're sitting at right about a 2.16 Mayer Multiple while we're in a bit of a consolidation period. This consolidation is much needed after the run up. During the rip from about 8k up to almost 14K, one of the daily candles actually closed above a 2.4 Mayer Multiple which is way too early in this bull market to see that sort of delta on the 200 MA and price. Even still, 2.16 MM is still a bit high for this early in the cycle. I expect some more consolidation over the next few weeks, maybe even a bit more of a pullback. Once the 200 MA catches up to the price, I think we'll get the next run up.
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Still holding this position - Still expecting minimum 5:1 upside from here