InvestingScope

Can Bitcoin go above $86000?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We are looking at three possible bullish long term scenarios for Bitcoin             that long term investors should consider based on its historic volatility since August 2011.


First parameters to consider are the previous two bull runs:

The 1st (Nov 2011 - Nov 2013) lasted for 728 days and delivered 52515% gains to the coin.
The 2nd (Jan 2015 - Dec 2017) lasted for 1057 days and delivered 12800% gains to the coin. That is 4.10 times less gains than the 1st bull run.


Assuming that the current bear market (2018/ 2019) will imitate the previous one (2014/ 2015) and make a bottom near Jan 28th at 2,686 (see this study here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ChdbegHP-Bitcoin-Comparing-bear-markets-Similarities-and-projection/), then we can draw three speculative future scenarios for the next bull run.


- Scenario 1 = $86687 (most realistic based on multiple factors like current market cap, adoption, historic volatility etc):

This includes a more moderate but still strong bull run that is calculated by the growing rate at which the previous two (bull runs) evolved. The 2nd bull run was +45.19% in duration than the 1st, so assuming a +45.19% growth rate for the 3rd bull run, we can calculate a total duration of 1534 days. Adding to this parameter the fact that the 2nd bull run had 4.10 times less gains than the 1st bull run, we can assume that the 3rd will also deliver 4.10 times less gains than the 2nd, resulting into + 3121% of total gains = high at 86687.


- Scenario 2 = $372318 (more realistic than 1 but still many more parameters need to be taken into account):

This includes less aggressive but still extremely strong bull run identical to the 2nd (Jan 2015 - Dec 2017) lasting also 1057 days and growing by 12800%. That translates to a market high of $372318.53 by the end of November 2021.


- Scenario 3 = $1455087 (unrealistic based on common market cap factors as we traditionally know them):

This includes an aggressive bull run identical to the 1st (Nov 2011 - Nov 2013) lasting also 728 days and growing by 52515%. That translates to a market high of $1455087.51 by the end of December 2020.



Note that those scenarios are just technical speculation based on the historic volatility available. There are many more fundamental factors to consider and this is why we are reviewing BTC             on a daily basis. However bullish long term Bitcoin             investors can have these scenarios in mind.


If you like our free content follow our profile (https://www.tradingview.com/u/InvestingScope) to get more daily ideas.

Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Subscribe now to our high quality signals service (www.investingscope.com) for live buy/sell opportunities on a variety of financial assets.
InvestingScope Yo_Mama_Trades
@Yo_Mama_Trades, Well done on hitting it.
Reply
InvestingScope The_Pro_Team
@The_Pro_Team, Thanks for your feedback
Reply
1 is most realistic... uptrends continue to get weaker over time because of higher market cap
Reply
InvestingScope MOONSOON1337
@MOONSOON1337, Exactly.Decelerating growth due to higher market cap.
+1 Reply
why dont you consider that end of 2014 capitulation was %100 related with mtgox hack.. ?
+2 Reply
BITCOIN 4H ANALYSIS
+1 Reply
Mental Masturbation
+6 Reply
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out