First parameters to consider are the previous two bull runs:
The 1st (Nov 2011 - Nov 2013) lasted for 728 days and delivered 52515% gains to the coin.
The 2nd (Jan 2015 - Dec 2017) lasted for 1057 days and delivered 12800% gains to the coin. That is 4.10 times less gains than the 1st bull run.
Assuming that the current bear market (2018/ 2019) will imitate the previous one (2014/ 2015) and make a bottom near Jan 28th at 2,686 (see this study here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ChdbegHP-Bitcoin-Comparing-bear-markets-Similarities-and-projection/), then we can draw three speculative future scenarios for the next bull run.
- Scenario 1 = $86687 (most realistic based on multiple factors like current market cap, adoption, historic etc):
This includes a more moderate but still strong bull run that is calculated by the growing rate at which the previous two (bull runs) evolved. The 2nd bull run was +45.19% in duration than the 1st, so assuming a +45.19% growth rate for the 3rd bull run, we can calculate a total duration of 1534 days. Adding to this parameter the fact that the 2nd bull run had 4.10 times less gains than the 1st bull run, we can assume that the 3rd will also deliver 4.10 times less gains than the 2nd, resulting into + 3121% of total gains = high at 86687.
- Scenario 2 = $372318 (more realistic than 1 but still many more parameters need to be taken into account):
This includes less aggressive but still extremely strong bull run identical to the 2nd (Jan 2015 - Dec 2017) lasting also 1057 days and growing by 12800%. That translates to a market high of $372318.53 by the end of November 2021.
- Scenario 3 = $1455087 (unrealistic based on common market cap factors as we traditionally know them):
This includes an aggressive bull run identical to the 1st (Nov 2011 - Nov 2013) lasting also 728 days and growing by 52515%. That translates to a market high of $1455087.51 by the end of December 2020.
Note that those scenarios are just technical speculation based on the historic available. There are many more fundamental factors to consider and this is why we are reviewing BTC on a daily basis. However long term Bitcoin investors can have these scenarios in mind.
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