After the strong bullish speculation on sugar finally ended, with the price is returning to more realistic values, my attention shifted to coffee.
Coffee, which was also heavily speculated upwards, reaching an absurd price of $ 140, has returned to the $ 100 area and then rebounded. At the end of the bounce, as you can see from the chart below, a distribution phase has begun, what in the candlestick analysis is called "checkmate."
Coffee, if there is no particularly positive news and data, will fall again in the coming weeks. Both because of the coronavirus effect, and because Brazilian production has grown a lot (also helped by the favourable climate), which will bring the price down.
Also (confidential news), a well-known Italian coffee company is still waiting to fix the price of the next deliveries, as it is sure that the contango will drop, as well as the prices.
Next short targets: $ 106.50/108.00 - $ 101.00 - $ 97.50/99.00 - $ 94.00.
@VUNGO-QUANG, Thanks for the trust, but I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know the price of coffee on Monday. What I know, if the current conditions don't change, in the coming weeks we will see the coffee drop in price.