Over the weekend, Bitcoin bounced approximately 4% from a low of $22 770 before weakening slightly. Currently, one piece trades near the $23 400 price tag, and we have not seen confirmation of the short-term trend reversal. Therefore, we continue to pay close attention to DM+ and DM-. Ideally, we want to see them converge and perform a bearish crossover (on the daily time frame). At the same time, we want RSI, Stochastic, and MACD to continue declining.
Besides these technical factors, we also observe the price action and sentiment in the stock market to which Bitcoin stays highly correlated (predominantly the tech sector). Interestingly, Coinbase reported its full-year 2022 earnings in the last week, which provides excellent insight into the corporate side of the cryptocurrency market. The company posted a net loss of $2.625 billion for the year (vs. net income of $3.624 billion during its record year 2021). Trading volume dropped from $1.671 trillion to $830 billion, with consumer volume dropping 68% and institutional volume falling 41%. Assets on the platform dropped from $278 billion to only $80 billion, representing a 71% decline. Coinbase’s performance was very weak in 2022, which hints at a still fragile market (and suggests that its competitors are hardly in much better shape).
We believe tight financial conditions will persist throughout 2023, putting more pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies. As a result, we believe both of these sectors are very likely to drop below their 2022 lows. Accordingly, we stay bearish on BTCUSD and maintain our price targets at $15 000 and $13 000.
Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD, resistance/support levels, and two simple moving averages.
Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
You can see a Dragonfly Doji 25-Feb. the same signal as back in 13-Feb. Any trading above the close of this candle/session is highly bullish.
The whole structure is strongly bullish. Right now we are looking at consolidation after a bullish breakout (Jan. 2023). As long as prices stay strong, above support, we can expect a resumption of the initial move.
- Any trading above $20,000 is incredibly good. - Any trading above $22,222 Bitcoin is ultra-bullish. - Above $23,700 Bitcoin is considered HYPER-bullish.
You can adapt and change, update your view anytime you want but it is always better to do it early rather than late.
I am saying this as a friend, imagine having to start publishing bullish trade ideas at 30K?
If Bitcoin moves above $30,000 would you consider it bullish? If yes, what about all the trade ideas you shared before 30K?
Forget your personal opinion, focus on the chart.
I am writing this as a friend.
This type of situation only happens once every 4 years... Better be on the right side of history, good for your track record.
Namaste.
noble1ones
⋅
@Tradersweekly, More BS, LOL! Just like your ideas suggesting that the FED influences Bitcoin's price direction
Tradersweekly
⋅
@noble1ones, It does not suggest the direction; it suggests there will be continuous pressure on risks assets like cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, it will weigh on the economy and stock market.
AlanSantana
⋅
@Tradersweekly, Translation: "I am so disturbed right now that I will not take anything anybody has to say. I cannot look at facts objectively nor can I establish a decent discussion with another human being.
"I will accuse you and insult you with all my strength in an effort to distract from my current state of mind which is desperate as you can see, or else I wouldn't be replying in this way."
My friend... It is just a comment. The comments section are meant for us to share and exchange ideas. It helps your post by pushing it higher...
I didn't meant to hurt but, I understand.
Now, if I may.
I am not a scammer thats nonsense and completely irrelevant. The information I share sometimes is good, other times trade fails but overall I produce positive results, you can just dig a bit and can confirm what I say.
"Namaste" is just a greeting, just like saying "Hello", so please, do not be offended by it.
Whatever you are going through, stay strong, there is always light at the end.
Namaste.
Tradersweekly
⋅
@AlanSantana, To me, more disturbing is a facade of an "enlighted" person. I do not want to be associated with shady exchanges or people selling trade signals (nor with those who push ideas like "bull market in BTC began, there won't be any more pullbacks."). That is why I drew the distinction that we are not friends; I do not want people to get the wrong impression. So please, do not even start with this "whatever you are going through..." - I am completely okay. I am only frustrated by the amount of people without knowledge or trading experience always trying to sell some financial service to those who do not know better.
Free_Loader
⋅
@Tradersweekly you’re spot on: you can’t cheat macro economics and fundamentals. Somehow the idiots in this thread seem to think Bitcoin trades in isolation, when in reality, retail doesn’t drive this sector one bit, but institutions do (or better yet, Tether printing and fake exchange volumes, which research has shown contribute to at least 51% of the asset price). So, if institutions are subject to monetary and fiscal policies, you can damn well expect Bitcoin to follow suit, for that simple reason alone.
Any trading above the close of this candle/session is highly bullish.
The whole structure is strongly bullish.
Right now we are looking at consolidation after a bullish breakout (Jan. 2023).
As long as prices stay strong, above support, we can expect a resumption of the initial move.
- Any trading above $20,000 is incredibly good.
- Any trading above $22,222 Bitcoin is ultra-bullish.
- Above $23,700 Bitcoin is considered HYPER-bullish.
You can adapt and change, update your view anytime you want but it is always better to do it early rather than late.
I am saying this as a friend, imagine having to start publishing bullish trade ideas at 30K?
If Bitcoin moves above $30,000 would you consider it bullish?
If yes, what about all the trade ideas you shared before 30K?
Forget your personal opinion, focus on the chart.
I am writing this as a friend.
This type of situation only happens once every 4 years...
Better be on the right side of history, good for your track record.
Namaste.