I think the ability to be self critical about our opinions and viewpoints is key to making our decisions in trading and life better. As many TA's out there are saying I agree this market should be apexing, from all TA reasoning its over bought and is overdue a massive correction. I said I think we are peaking at 7,200 and that 7k wouldn't hold in a previous trading post. If we open our eyes and see what is actually occurring with price action and what the market is telling us through this price action and the try to look deeper and understand it rather than hold to our viewpoints and stand back in disbelieve maybe we can learn something.
I believe we are in a sort of market vacuum right now where the price is artificially high due to people holding for Segwit2x as well as constant influx of new buyers in the market, AND larger players using this offer side thinness in their favor by pushing this momentum into a huge upward move. Everyone sees BTC going up and up and knows something is a bit strange with this price action, by all traditional reason even if with a exponentially growing market it doesn't add up. You look at the over the volume of BTC being traded in exchanges and it doesn't add up to this move. I believe this October/November move might be one of the last chances for the market whales to control the market so fully as CME coming into play later this year. When CME comes into play effective market hedging should give some insulation against massive price movements.
I believe BTC will not and almost can not sell off before Nov 15th and there is a constant gentle push upward by overall buying trend and light market offers. Look for all hell to break lose around Nov 15-20 after the fork. We really don't know which side will win at this point. Seems like current Bitcoin classic is favored but from the outside we don't know the underlying agreements that have been made between the major influencers, whales, and the minors. We could be in for a surprise, as we all know anything is possible. So instead of sitting on the sidelines with my mouth agape, I am going to go long with a 2.618 target range of 8,500, but a take profit of 8,200, as I feel this is achievable even if momentum slows some over the next week. Stop loss of 7,250 and/or time stop of Nov 13th whichever is first.
Trade closed: stop reached
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Maybe the right idea a bit too early. Stopped out at 7,250. Market had small correction down to 7,100.
Stop losses are a joke with BTC. The amount of volatility we experience just wipes out even the good ideas, which would be profitable if it were not for being stopped out. Much better to monitor such trades and form an opinion based on how sudden a move is, volume, etc. However, it seems another correction is happening right now, and coincides with the TD count that everyone is posting about (and Wall St listens to), so maybe one to watch.
lewistz
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@heisginger, Agreed very hard to trade without taking large risks at this point because of daily volatility. Look at my ETH/BTC idea I just posted, it may not be ripe to enter just yet but interesting. If we people are going to dump BTC for profit taking after Segwit2x Nov 15-20 ETH is going to increase as other ALTs. Interested in learning more about TD count, where is a good source of information for this?
Dudleydogg
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Yes seems since few months back its on the Roller coaster slope, I just wonder what happens when it gets to the TOP "FORK" ??