While it would be optimistic to think that the cryptocurrency market slide in 2018 represents only a regular correction in an otherwise prevailing bull market, I don't think we're merely standing too close to the forest to see the trees here. We've all heard the common tropes making their way around social circles, StockTwits, Subreddits, etc. -- "maybe this looks bad for you stock investors, but this is crypto!", "Bitcoin has corrected 30, 40, and even 60% before making new highs in the following weeks!", and "I feel sorry for you bears who aren't buying at this price." The harsh reality of the matter is, regardless of how you spin it, sentiment is not what is was in December; the people who are driving Lambos have already bought them, and I can tell you they probably didn't buy them with Bitcoin if you catch my hint.
One look at the chart and you will see a three month downtrend (indicated as a channel, as the support and resistance lines are roughly parallel) that has quickly brought down the 50-day moving average with it. In the coming days (an overnight leap to 15k+ notwithstanding) the 50-day will cross the 200-day moving average, generating the infamous "death cross" signal as a bear market is confirmed beyond our obvious suspicion. While support around the $6700 trend line may find new buyers, the 200-day moving average looming above price action should in theory provide even more significant resistance moving forward. Given the algorithm-driven nature of the BTC / crypto market, I suspect this technical phenomenon might cause things to truly spin out of control.
Because every action requires an equal and opposite reaction, I suspect the parabolic move to the upside will let the pendulum swing the other way.
If you haven't already, perhaps now might be a good time to HODL cash.
One look at the chart and you will see a three month downtrend (indicated as a channel, as the support and resistance lines are roughly parallel) that has quickly brought down the 50-day moving average with it. In the coming days (an overnight leap to 15k+ notwithstanding) the 50-day will cross the 200-day moving average, generating the infamous "death cross" signal as a bear market is confirmed beyond our obvious suspicion. While support around the $6700 trend line may find new buyers, the 200-day moving average looming above price action should in theory provide even more significant resistance moving forward. Given the algorithm-driven nature of the BTC / crypto market, I suspect this technical phenomenon might cause things to truly spin out of control.
Because every action requires an equal and opposite reaction, I suspect the parabolic move to the upside will let the pendulum swing the other way.
If you haven't already, perhaps now might be a good time to HODL cash.
Comment:
Last night's incredible short squeeze, which rocketed BTC up over $1,000 in under 30 minutes has proven to be a powerful catalyst in disrupting the otherwise bearish sentiment of the market. Now that price appears to be deviating from the above trajectory, the path upward now seems plausible beyond the trendline. Proceed with caution and best of luck!