Hello Friends, Traders, Everyone...
In our last analysis, I called for a first target @ $9100, and a second for a test of $10k. Soon after, we had a strong bounce from the fib channel support, a move which seems to have taken a slight pause here just shy of the first target - there are a lot of Fib extensions currently in play, it can be argued that target 1 has probably, at this point, been hit. We have just exactly touched the 127% level from the second highlighted impulse wave on my previous chart, and though I still think easily $9100 will be hit soon, taking profits here is of course, not the wrong answer.
So, now to today. I wanted to see if I could help explain why we seem to have paused here, and it didn't take very long for Fib to help uncover the culprit. It seems that, Bitcoin currently rests JUST under the 0.5 FSRF resistance, having violated it already, this resistance is still somewhat intact. This fan, namely the 0.618 level, was also responsible for the retracement we had around the first test of $7k just weeks ago.
Now, traditionally the 50% fib level is not too strong of a support/resistance line, and I expect for sure we will at least push through this resistance before we run into the 0.382, which happens to be just over $10K - or past our macro 162% ext target of a 10K test. Here, I will plan on a push through as btc seems as strong as it literally has ever been (including the 2017 bullrun) and that push towards 10K. Make no mistake, that's pretty likely. The resistance from the fib uptrend channels drawn from years of price action, is much higher, and as far as Fib Channels are concerned, we're in the middle of wide open ground right now, nothing in the way until upwards of $12K. So I would assume that, Bitcoin will look for another resistance near $10k. Because we are currently pausing at the .5 fan level, I'd guess will go for that next .382 level, which would give some resistance at around $10.2k - $10.4k area.
Now, that's the most likely scenario in my eyes. Alternatively, if this resistance proves to be enough to trigger a retracement from $8800, do not be shocked by another test of $7900 - $8100. I deleted it for reasons of clutter, but that area is roughly the 62% - 79% retracement level for the current impulse wave.
Now, we have to retrace at some point. This is normally where I would start advising extreme caution to avoid maybe, a larger retracement from a macro perspective, or even one from the entire last 2 months, if that could be considered one single impulse wave. Now because, on many lower time frames, we have had numerous retracements, some quite large (flash dump from the 17th anyone?) I would say, the risk of this happening is low.
That of course, is no reason to just run around commando with no stop loss.
So to summarize, I have taken some more profits here counting this as target 1. Hey, sometimes we overshoot :) No harm in securing profits.
Now, onwards towards low $10k area, or a retrace that probably would bounce off $8k, and there we can reevaluate.
Good luck, traders!
Previous Analyses:
In our last analysis, I called for a first target @ $9100, and a second for a test of $10k. Soon after, we had a strong bounce from the fib channel support, a move which seems to have taken a slight pause here just shy of the first target - there are a lot of Fib extensions currently in play, it can be argued that target 1 has probably, at this point, been hit. We have just exactly touched the 127% level from the second highlighted impulse wave on my previous chart, and though I still think easily $9100 will be hit soon, taking profits here is of course, not the wrong answer.
So, now to today. I wanted to see if I could help explain why we seem to have paused here, and it didn't take very long for Fib to help uncover the culprit. It seems that, Bitcoin currently rests JUST under the 0.5 FSRF resistance, having violated it already, this resistance is still somewhat intact. This fan, namely the 0.618 level, was also responsible for the retracement we had around the first test of $7k just weeks ago.
Now, traditionally the 50% fib level is not too strong of a support/resistance line, and I expect for sure we will at least push through this resistance before we run into the 0.382, which happens to be just over $10K - or past our macro 162% ext target of a 10K test. Here, I will plan on a push through as btc seems as strong as it literally has ever been (including the 2017 bullrun) and that push towards 10K. Make no mistake, that's pretty likely. The resistance from the fib uptrend channels drawn from years of price action, is much higher, and as far as Fib Channels are concerned, we're in the middle of wide open ground right now, nothing in the way until upwards of $12K. So I would assume that, Bitcoin will look for another resistance near $10k. Because we are currently pausing at the .5 fan level, I'd guess will go for that next .382 level, which would give some resistance at around $10.2k - $10.4k area.
Now, that's the most likely scenario in my eyes. Alternatively, if this resistance proves to be enough to trigger a retracement from $8800, do not be shocked by another test of $7900 - $8100. I deleted it for reasons of clutter, but that area is roughly the 62% - 79% retracement level for the current impulse wave.
Now, we have to retrace at some point. This is normally where I would start advising extreme caution to avoid maybe, a larger retracement from a macro perspective, or even one from the entire last 2 months, if that could be considered one single impulse wave. Now because, on many lower time frames, we have had numerous retracements, some quite large (flash dump from the 17th anyone?) I would say, the risk of this happening is low.
That of course, is no reason to just run around commando with no stop loss.
So to summarize, I have taken some more profits here counting this as target 1. Hey, sometimes we overshoot :) No harm in securing profits.
Now, onwards towards low $10k area, or a retrace that probably would bounce off $8k, and there we can reevaluate.
Good luck, traders!
Previous Analyses:
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Seems like a small retracement has occurred.
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Ah, crap. Better screenshot...
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testing
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whooooooops
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no need to panic, looks like we got the retracement
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It seems that the alternative scenario I described in my analysis above came to fruition, probably more slow moves up over the coming days, like we can see to the left of here. For this to stay valid, we have to stay above the fib channel, and then support below and resistance above will force BTC into a nice triangle breakout near the fib confluence :) good luck traders
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looks about right, shaping up to play out like each retracement previous
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Notice the similarity to the reaction from the last Bart down. As outlined in our analysis above, the bounce from the retrace is quite healthy and positive looking. I still maintain our ultimate 10k target. Make no mistake we can soon see a large bull candle but I would be a lot happier with this consistent small moves up type activity. I am out tonight and somewhat of tomorrow but I will keep the analysis as updated as I can. I am still trading this long from my phone as well.
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