BTC Weekly Outlook (FA & TA)

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Key Fundamentals:

1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). Institutional traders on CME remains undecided for the mid-term, and there are no clear signs of bullishness for the coming months.

2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.

3. Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment is bullish and potentially overstretched. The seller group is selling in profit and the seller group only market sentiment remains in a bull trend.

4. Margin Market Actions
Potential long squeeze alert in place. This is bearish for the short term.

Key Technicals:

1. Key resistance at 10.4k
2. 5 Elliot wave to the upside is finishing
3. RSI hasn’t shown bearish reversal signs yet:
2D – broke the bearish trend; 1D – bullish; 4hr – developing bearish divergences in the overbought region. This is extremely bullish from a RSI only perspective as multiple bearish divs can keep on developing with price making new highs. In this type of situation, the key is waiting for the MA failure (instead of bearish divergence) for a trend reversal identification.

Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!

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TA is now as bullish as FA. However, we simply can't shoot up in a straight line. Institutional traders think 11k is overpriced.
Weekly overview updated.
Support moved up to the 10.5-11k region.
After 3 months of indecisiveness (since 10k), it seems like institutional traders have finally made up their minds that we are in a bull trend and have further upward potential.

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